Market Chop Can Provide Good Entry, Watching CAT

Yet another record making week – The bull market of the March 2020 crash has already notched a number of records that history students will study for years to come. This past week only added to the story with focus on retail investors rattling seasoned hedge fund professionals with eye-popping short squeezes. For those of you that were able to successfully trade these stocks, congratulations! For those of you with less appetite for those type of volatile trades, let’s stay focused on the bigger macro picture that is unfolding.

Signs of a tactical Q1 peak developing but don’t overreact, the long-term cycle is intact. My technical view remains unchanged. Intermediate-term indicators, that track 1-2 quarter directional shifts in markets, are showing evidence of peaking and turning negative. What does this really mean to you as an investor? I’m expecting a more choppy, volatile trading range through Q1 that should create timely opportunities to increase portfolio exposure to cyclicals in Q2.

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