S&P 4000 likely in Q1 2021 – Accumulate near-term weakness

Cyclicals surged this past Monday in response to Pfizer’s vaccine announcement prompting some of our clients to ask whether they should fade the rally given the reacceleration in COVID cases.

While I am expecting equity markets to chop sideways in the very short-term to digest their recent gains, I do not recommend fading the recent rally in equities overall nor cyclicals specifically. From my perspective, I continue to see the technical backdrop improving rather than decaying and expect further upside through year-end well into the first quarter. Simply doubling the recent 11+% trading range that developed between September-November would support a move toward S&P 4000 by early-mid Q1. See this week’s chart featured below. More importantly, the longer-term 4-year cycle work I study suggests the current cycle should support equities through 2021 into 2022 before a cycle peak develops. If prior 4-year market cycles in secular bull markets are any guide for the current cycle, then a move toward 4400-4600 is possible before the cycle peaks.

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