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Expect Choppy Trading; Bottoming Process May Have Begun

Despite the eye-popping volatility seen in markets, the technical outlook remains unchanged: expect markets to remain in a very choppy trading range well into 2Q as part of broader bottoming pattern for the S&P 500 Index. In this space last Friday, I highlighted the likelihood of a high risk rebound based on deeply oversold short-term trading indicators and because a variety of internal indicators were already showing signs of coming off peak levels.

For example, NYSE downside volume peaked on Friday March 12 with a secondary, lower high on Wednesday March 18, while NYSE 52-week lows peaked on Friday March 13th as did the Put-Call ratios. The ARMS trading index peaked on Monday March 16 and the VIX peaked on March 18th.

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