Fri, November 8, 2019 | 5:49PM ET

Cyclical rotation in-tact heading into final weeks of 2019

Managing Director and Technical Strategist

The long-term equity cycle backdrop continues to improve as major US equity indices extend their October rallies to all time highs. Within equity markets cyclicals, notably financials and industrials, have broadly reaccelerated with their relative performance trends versus the S&P 500 finally reversing 2-year downtrends. This action continues to confirm the bullish view I have outlined here through the summer and fall.

This week saw a number of key technical hurdles breached. Financials and industrials continued to outperform, making increased relative performance highs that are now above their 200-day moving averages. In contrast, as noted below in the sector section, utilities and staples are beginning to break down right on track.

In addition, as I’m writing this note on Thursday afternoon, the largest bond ETF, the TLT (135.48), has just moved to a new low, gapping below the key 136 support level I focused on in our October 24th note. The TLT’s 2019 uptrend is now broken and serves as one more technical data point confirming a rotation away from safety toward riskon assets.

Cyclical rotation in-tact heading into final weeks of 2019

One near-term risk I see is a temporary pause/pullback taking hold shortly given almost all risk assets are overbought short-term. As an example, the Russell 2000 Small-cap index is showing early signs of stalling at resistance at the upper end of its MarchOctober trading range. I expect pullbacks to be short lived, so don’t get shaken out of long positions attempting to micro-manage selling only to have to buy back. This market cycle appears to have legs to run for many quarters. We suggest to stay long and strong using pullbacks to increase exposure.

So what is there to buy other than the cyclicals we’ve been recommending here for months? Well, Chinese growth stocks, such as Netease (NTES), Alibaba (BABA) and

Tencent (700 in HK) are showing a classic progression of a major cycle lows developing following 12-18 month bear markets.

Leading the rally is NTES pushing above its summer highs, with BABA close behind as both begin to reverse their 2019 downtrends. Tencent is particularly interesting this week as it begins to bottom almost exactly at its rising long-term uptrend defined by its rising 200-week sma.

Bottom line: My outlook remains unchanged – expect further upside in equities well into Q1 driven by broadening participation across cyclicals with the off-side positioning by most money managers being overweight safety stocks and underweight cyclicals, as fuel for further rotation

Disclosures (show)

This research is for the clients of FS Insight only. FSI Subscription entitles the subscriber to 1 user, research cannot be shared or redistributed. For additional information, please contact your sales representative or FS Insight at fsinsight.com.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of FS Insight. At the time of publication of this report, FS Insight does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest.

General Disclosures

FS Insight is an independent research company and is not a registered investment advisor and is not acting as a broker dealer under any federal or state securities laws.

FS Insight is a member of IRC Securities’ Research Prime Services Platform. IRC Securities is a FINRA registered broker-dealer that is focused on supporting the independent research industry. Certain personnel of FS Insight (i.e. Research Analysts) are registered representatives of IRC Securities, a FINRA member firm registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission and certain state securities regulators. As registered representatives and independent contractors of IRC Securities, such personnel may receive commissions paid to or shared with IRC Securities for transactions placed by FS Insight clients directly with IRC Securities or with securities firms that may share commissions with IRC Securities in accordance with applicable SEC and FINRA requirements. IRC Securities does not distribute the research of FS Insight, which is available to select institutional clients that have engaged FS Insight.

As registered representatives of IRC Securities our analysts must follow IRC Securities’ Written Supervisory Procedures. Notable compliance policies include (1) prohibition of insider trading or the facilitation thereof, (2) maintaining client confidentiality, (3) archival of electronic communications, and (4) appropriate use of electronic communications, amongst other compliance related policies.

FS Insight does not have the same conflicts that traditional sell-side research organizations have because FS Insight (1) does not conduct any investment banking activities, and (2) does not manage any investment funds.

This communication is issued by FS Insight and/or affiliates of FS Insight. This is not a personal recommendation, nor an offer to buy or sell nor a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, investment products or other financial instruments or services. This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice.
The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Intended for recipient only and not for further distribution without the consent of FS Insight.

This research is for the clients of FS Insight only. Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but FS Insight does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to FS Insight and the analyst’s involvement (if any) with any of the subject companies of the research. All pricing is as of the market close for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, risk tolerance, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Except in circumstances where FS Insight expressly agrees otherwise in writing, FS Insight is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice, including within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client website, fsinsight.com. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or made available to third-party aggregators or the media. Please contact your sales representative if you would like to receive any of our research publications.