Trucking Looks Set for Potential Turnaround Array ( [cookie] => 2eb997-b02d1e-552bd5-b56617-d58b40 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 567899 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
As I sit here in the beautiful Smoky Mountains, I note that, in my absence, the S&P 500 has again, in August, held and rallied from key support at 2822, following last Friday’s tweet sell-off. Despite this gut-check roller coaster ride, the technical backdrop remains unchanged, with the index likely to remain in a broad trading range well into September, and possibly into early October. The proprietary weekly indicators I track point to a few more choppy weeks, which should set the stage for a strong Q4-year-end rebound. I see upside resistance around 2940-2945, near the August trading range upper end and coinciding with the 50-day moving average and prior highs.
Though it’s easy to become mesmerized or even paralyzed watching the market’s volatility, I encourage investors to screen ideas from the bottom up. Often there are less obvious clues developing at the stock level that are masked by the market’s movement.
For example, the trucking group is showing surprising signs of recovery despite the gloomy macro-economic headlines. As the most cyclical group within the transports, any improvement that appears is one I view as Mr. Market telling us to pay attention. The stocks below illustrate a potential bearish to bullish profile transition.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) has remained the group’s standout leader throughout 2018-19, even challenging its ‘18 highs this summer. The recent pullback shows evidence of rallying from support near 156, which conveniently coincides with its 50-dma and Q1-Q2 highs. I expect ODFL breaks out to new highs in Q4.
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Thomas J. Lee
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