• First Word
 Wed October 26

S&P 500 ~30% loss in "real terms" staggering, leaving room for rally. Not priced for perfection. Since 1930, median P/E when 10Y 3.5% to 4.5% is 19X, and 18.5X when Fed tightening.

Stocks have continued to strengthen, and in our view, this is more than just a "dead cat bounce" (aka bear rally) as we have outlined in multiple prior reports. But even if this proves to be a "bear rally," the ingredients are in place for...

Cases now rising in 16 states (+5 vs last week) but this is our baseline. While incoming inflation is hot, financial markets (breakevens) see cooling of risk
  • Signal from Noise
 Wed July 1, 2020
Post COVID-19, Simply Good Foods Stock Looks Appetizing

Post COVID-19, Simply Good Foods Stock Looks Appetizing

Like many small caps, Simply Good Foods (SMPL) saw its stock get whacked in the coronavirus panic in March, down about 50% at one point to $14 from $30 last September.  The market abandoned small caps en masse—normal under stressful times—even companies with strong potential, like SMPL.  Source: Bloomberg Once...

  • Portfolio Strategy
 Fri June 12, 2020
Despite Pullback, Earnings Revisions Support Rally Continuing

Despite Pullback, Earnings Revisions Support Rally Continuing

Given last week’s pullback, I remind investors to keep your eyes on the bigger target, the horizon six, 12, and 18 months away. Our work tells us that equity markets will be higher in the future. Additionally, from a positioning standpoint our proprietary sector single stock quantitative stock models still...