oil
- Intraday First Word
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Economy can handle $100 oil but 10% equity drawdown poses greater impact = Fed put higher than people realize
We publish on a 4-day a week schedule Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: ECONOMY CAN HANDLE $100 OIL BUT 10% EQUITY DRAWDOWN POSES GREATER IMPACT = FED PUT HIGHER THAN PEOPLE REALIZE _STRATEGY: Fed "put" arguably closer to a 10% drawdown in stocks today... _Fortunately, oil is taking...
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The "oil fat lady is singing" --> Not trying to be too "contrarian" but $130 oil far less a burden vs 2008 or 1980s. Median P/E now 16.7X vs 18.6X YE2019
We publish on a 4-day a week schedule Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: THE "OIL FAT LADY IS SINGING" --> NOT TRYING TO BE TOO "CONTRARIAN" BUT $130 OIL FAR LESS A BURDEN VS 2008 OR 1980S. MEDIAN P/E NOW 16.7X VS 18.6X YE2019 _Russia has lost 7.5%...
First Word
Oil surges $9 to $130, but is 3% of consumer wallet, below 4.5%/6.5% in 2008/1980. $200 oil = 4%
We publish on a 4-day a week schedule Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: OIL SURGES $9 TO $130, BUT IS 3% OF CONSUMER...
Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
“Demand Destruction” Is Overblown: Why $80 Oil Today Equals $110 Oil in 2014
Consider the following: - $80 oil = $3.22 gasoline - Based on BEA data, gasoline purchases as percent of household purchases is now 2.35% of...
First Word
"Demand destruction" overblown. Why $80 oil today = $110 oil in 2014
To put gasoline in perspective, take a look at this chart by howmuch. net. We highlighted gasoline share of total wallet. And you can see...
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Half of COVID-19 hospitalizations are likely asymptomatic = wut? Oil creeping to new highs is strong signal for Epicenter stocks
Half of all hospitalized US COVID-19 patients likely have mild or no symptoms A few weeks ago, Matt F, one of our long-time clients in Boston (thank you!) forwarded me the story from the Atlantic, with a really provocative and eye-catching headline and byline: - "a new study suggests that...
First Word
Small-caps breakout underway and Oil is +1% above 2019 levels, but XLE/OIH is -21%/ -33% lower...hmmm
The other sector that we think will soon be a major beneficiary, if US COVID-19 cases are legging down, is Energy. Energy is arguably the...
First Word
COVID-19 UPDATE: Israel daily cases (per 1mm) now 26 vs 952 (Jan). ND and SD could see "obliteration" by June. Oil prices key to direction of Epicenter trade...
The lag between penetration of vaccines and cases falling is due to a few factors including the fact that vaccines take time to become effective. ...
