• Intraday First Word
Wed July 13, 2022

THIS IS AN INTRADAY FIRST WORD TO DISCUSS ENERGY UPSIDE SURPRISE IN JUNE CPI _GASOLINE MIGHT BE "DEFLATIONARY" IN JULY IF 9 PRIOR OIL DECLINES ARE PRECEDENT_ The June CPI was "ugly" and an upside surprise. The YoY was +9.1% versus consensus +8.8%.Motor fuel (gasoline)...

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  • First Word
Wed March 16, 2022

Economy can handle $100 oil but 10% equity drawdown poses greater impact = Fed put higher than people realize

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: ECONOMY CAN HANDLE $100 OIL BUT 10% EQUITY DRAWDOWN POSES GREATER IMPACT = FED PUT HIGHER THAN PEOPLE REALIZE _STRATEGY: Fed "put" arguably closer to a 10% drawdown in stocks today... _Fortunately, oil is taking...

  • First Word
Tue March 8, 2022

The "oil fat lady is singing" --> Not trying to be too "contrarian" but $130 oil far less a burden vs 2008 or 1980s. Median P/E now 16.7X vs 18.6X YE2019

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: THE "OIL FAT LADY IS SINGING" --> NOT TRYING TO BE TOO "CONTRARIAN" BUT $130 OIL FAR LESS A BURDEN VS 2008 OR 1980S. MEDIAN P/E NOW 16.7X VS 18.6X YE2019 _Russia has lost 7.5%...

  • First Word
Mon March 7, 2022

Oil surges $9 to $130, but is 3% of consumer wallet, below 4.5%/6.5% in 2008/1980. $200 oil = 4%

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: OIL SURGES $9 TO $130, BUT IS 3% OF CONSUMER WALLET, BELOW 4.5%/6.5% IN 2008/1980. $200 OIL = 4% Equity markets are still struggling to find equilibrium and footing given the Russia-Ukraine war and the...

  • Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Fri October 8, 2021

“Demand Destruction” Is Overblown: Why $80 Oil Today Equals $110 Oil in 2014

Consider the following: - $80 oil = $3.22 gasoline - Based on BEA data, gasoline purchases as percent of household purchases is now 2.35% of all expenses We think this hardly represents a burden to households: - 2.35% share of wallet is quite small and barely a top 20 category...

  • First Word
Fri October 8, 2021

"Demand destruction" overblown. Why $80 oil today = $110 oil in 2014

To put gasoline in perspective, take a look at this chart by howmuch. net.  We highlighted gasoline share of total wallet.  And you can see that it is among the top 20 categories, but hardly the top expenditure. https://howmuch. net/articles/breakdown-average-american-spending _... SHOULDN'T WE WORRY MORE ABOUT THE SURGE IN COST...

  • First Word
Tue September 28, 2021

Half of COVID-19 hospitalizations are likely asymptomatic = wut? Oil creeping to new highs is strong signal for Epicenter stocks

Half of all hospitalized US COVID-19 patients likely have mild or no symptoms A few weeks ago, Matt F, one of our long-time clients in Boston (thank you!) forwarded me the story from the Atlantic, with a really provocative and eye-catching headline and byline: - "a new study suggests that...

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  • Intraday First Word
Fri April 23, 2021

Small-caps breakout underway and Oil is +1% above 2019 levels, but XLE/OIH is -21%/ -33% lower...hmmm

The other sector that we think will soon be a major beneficiary, if US COVID-19 cases are legging down, is Energy.  Energy is arguably the most sensitive to an economic re-opening because the movement of goods involves consuming some form of Energy. - Oil is now +1% compared to where...

  • First Word
Fri April 16, 2021

COVID-19 UPDATE: Israel daily cases (per 1mm) now 26 vs 952 (Jan). ND and SD could see "obliteration" by June. Oil prices key to direction of Epicenter trade...

The lag between penetration of vaccines and cases falling is due to a few factors including the fact that vaccines take time to become effective.  And the broader fact, a lot of the population is still exposed and vulnerable. _MCKINSEY ESTIMATES THAT 80-90% OF POPULATION NEEDS TO BE VACCINATED, BUT...

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