• First Word
Fri September 16

In 2H2022, there have been two separate days where markets saw massive declines:post-Jackson Hole on 8/26post-August CPI on 9/13 In both instances, equites were reacting to re-calibration of Fed expectations. That is, when investors see risk of tighter Fed, stocks have fallen in a broad...

With housing weakening, investors bringing out their “2008 hammers” again. Cognitive bias in full force. 2H rally intact.
  • First Word
Mon June 6

Nasdaq outperformed post dot-com crash. Yup. And structural labor shortage strengthens demand for Technology in 2022

Signs of economic slowing are becoming more prevalent, allaying concerns that the economy is so "hot" that the Fed needs to further accelerate rate hikes. But the unknown is how quickly inflationary pressures abate. As our clients know, we believe goods inflation will decline faster than consensus expects, which in...

  • First Word
Wed April 27

Buyer's strike = busted tape. Nasdaq underperformance so bad, since 1985 = future relative gains

Markets are still rattled by war headlines. Russia announced plans to cut natural gas supplies to Poland. Russia is following through on its demands that gas supplies be paid in Rubles. And this appears in retaliation for Poland providing escalating support to Ukraine in the war efforts. And generally, this...

Best two-day run for the NASDAQ since 2020; Now What?

Following one of the most important FOMC meetings in recent times, the key takeaway is simple: the FOMC wants financial conditions to tighten.  Both $QQQ and SPX pushed up to a meaningful trendline of resistance, and movement above 350 for QQQ and above 4417 in SPX is imperative to gain...

  • Signal from Noise
Wed July 22, 2020

If EPS Rises to Pre-Covid-19 Level, XLNX Could See Old Highs

Xilinx (XLNX), which designs and develops programmable chips, has seen its share price rise about 50% to around $103 in the recent rally from the March lows, as the market broadly discounts a lessening of the COVID-19 spread, and a reopening of global economies.  Source: FSInsight. com, Bloomberg XLNX is...