Articles tagged as


  • First Word
June 15

Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike (vs 50bp prior). This is a break from the forward guidance given by the Fed and has prompted multiple interpretations...

USA hospitalization rates are rolling over hard = sign worst of Omicron severity over?  Equities have bottomed well ahead of hospitalization peaks

Key takeaways from FOMC = gut check means markets too hawkish = good

Due to the importance of yesterday's FOMC, we are sending out the First Word today, instead of Friday. There will be a resend of today's note with updated COVID data tomorrow morning. _50BP DID NOT END THE WORLD..._ Equity markets rallied strongly following May FOMC. We will discuss our ...

  • Fed Watch
January 7

Hawkish FOMC Minutes Spook Markets and Maul High Duration Equities, All Eyes On Powell Confirmation Testimony

Jay Powell has been a very dovish Fed chief and has taken great pains to prepare for investors for the Fed’s every move. This week though, the discussions of the FOMC at their December meeting spooked markets and raised the prospect of a more Old Testament style Fed that gets...

  • First Word
December 14, 2021

Nobody want to be a hero in front of FOMC and technicals have suffered some damage. But base case remains YE rally

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: NOBODY WANT TO BE A HERO IN FRONT OF FOMC AND TECHNICALS HAVE SUFFERED SOME DAMAGE. BUT BASE CASE REMAINS YE RALLY _US is waiting for Omicron surge _ Daily cases in the US have...

'Hated' Rally of 2019 Faces Crucial FOMC Meeting Week

As just about anyone who isn’t living under a rock expects, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board is set to cut the Fed funds rate next Wednesday (for more on this see page 6). My anecdotal sense in talking with clients is that they are focusing on the last two rate...