• US Policy
Mon November 28, 2022

Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the November FOMC meeting.  At the time of the meeting the Committee released a rather dovish statement that was followed by a more hawkish Chair press conference.  At the time I cautioned that, while hawkish, the...

Biggest lesson of Jan 2022 is market fearful of Fed.  But in 2010, fed fund futures expected 2.5% FF by 2012... but that did not happen for another 7 years
  • First Word
Fri November 4, 2022

Powell hawkish on FOMC as he saw little progress on jobs, inflation and housing... but roadmap to dovish "pause" remains same and likely

In the 36 hours since the November FOMC meeting, stocks are down -3.5% and bond yields are up with 10-year up 8bp to 4.13%. But these moves in prices do not reflect a far gloomier surge in investor sentiment.The official FOMC statement made a "dovish" modification noting the committee will...

  • Daily Technical Strategy
Mon October 31, 2022

Will the FOMC deliver the “Trick” or the “Treat”?

HAPPY HALLOWEEN TO ALL! The minor selloff during Monday’s session didn’t serve to detract too much from what’s been a stellar month for $SPX.  As seen below, $SPX has been trending up nicely, higher by over 10% from 10/13 intra-day lows and higher by nearly 8% for the month of...

  • US Policy
Tue October 11, 2022

FOMC minutes, polling and midterms

Tomorrow the Fed will release the FOMC minutes from its September meeting.  The minutes should reveal the support Chair Powell has to continue rate increases and at what level. Last week’s strong employment numbers likely heightened the resolve of the Fed for more rate increases.  The next FOMC meeting is...

  • First Word
Wed June 15, 2022

Markets far more de-risked into June FOMC. And +75bp brings rates closer to market expectations.

Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike (vs 50bp prior). This is a break from the forward guidance given by the Fed and has prompted multiple interpretations of this move. Source: Wall...

  • First Word
Thu May 5, 2022

Key takeaways from FOMC = gut check means markets too hawkish = good

Due to the importance of yesterday's FOMC, we are sending out the First Word today, instead of Friday. There will be a resend of today's note with updated COVID data tomorrow morning. _50BP DID NOT END THE WORLD..._ Equity markets rallied strongly following May FOMC. We will discuss our ...

  • Fed Watch
Fri January 7, 2022

Hawkish FOMC Minutes Spook Markets and Maul High Duration Equities, All Eyes On Powell Confirmation Testimony

Jay Powell has been a very dovish Fed chief and has taken great pains to prepare for investors for the Fed’s every move. This week though, the discussions of the FOMC at their December meeting spooked markets and raised the prospect of a more Old Testament style Fed that gets...

  • First Word
Tue December 14, 2021

Nobody want to be a hero in front of FOMC and technicals have suffered some damage. But base case remains YE rally

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: NOBODY WANT TO BE A HERO IN FRONT OF FOMC AND TECHNICALS HAVE SUFFERED SOME DAMAGE. BUT BASE CASE REMAINS YE RALLY _US is waiting for Omicron surge _ Daily cases in the US have...

  • Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Fri July 26, 2019

'Hated' Rally of 2019 Faces Crucial FOMC Meeting Week

As just about anyone who isn’t living under a rock expects, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board is set to cut the Fed funds rate next Wednesday (for more on this see page 6). My anecdotal sense in talking with clients is that they are focusing on the last two rate...

Reserve Your Seat