Fed
- First Word
- Intraday First Word
"Lagged" CPI finally reality of rapidly falling inflation = less pressure on Fed = YE rally
Today's CPI was a major downside read coming in at:Nov CPIHeadline CPI +0.1% vs Street 0.3%Core CPI 0.2% vs Street 0.3%Details show that the downside "soft" Nov CPI repeatableLast month, our analysis showed "soft" Oct CPI was repeatable, and it was Source: Bloomberg Look below, the trend is obvious:Food is...
- First Word
Investors more "bearish" in front of Wed Fed Chair Powell at Brookings Institution, but other key macro offsets this...
In the first two trading days of this week, equities have been soft. Ostensibly, there are 3 near-term factors that are weighing on equities:Concerns about China protests turmoil and impact on US cos ($AAPL, etc)Fed Chair Powell is set to speak at Brookings Institution Wed and investors expect him to...
Your Weekly Roadmap
Markets Down for The Week on Tough Talk From Fed But Bounce on Friday
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”- Mark Twain There’s a lot of complex jargon...
US Policy
Fed Day Wednesday and Elections one week to go
After a month of discussion about the next move by the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), decision day comes this week. The FOMC starts...
US Policy
Fed and election focus of week ahead
After weeks of guessing what the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) may do on interest rates, Wednesday is decision day, and the all-important post-meeting...
- First Word
Did the Haver "ransomware" attack inadvertently impact FOMC decision for "higher for longer"? Dec 2022 "dot plots"? Explains why 2-yr see fewer Fed hikes in 2023. Surge in Earnings Yield past year supports strong gains in 2023.
Equities sold off sharply in the days following the December FOMC. Investors told us they were disappointed:Despite visible progress on inflation (2 consecutive very soft inflation prints)Fed increased the inflation forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by +30bp and +40bp in their SEP (summary economic projections)And as a result, Fed decided...
US Policy
Elections and Fed
The days are counting down as the November 8th midterm elections approach. Polls over the last few weeks seem to indicate a shift of momentum...
First Word
Fed speak this week shows Fed see supply-chains and commodities behind inflation = progress there supportive of possibility of post-Dec "pause"
In our multiple conversations with investors this week, the main question is why should any investor expect equity prices to stage any meaningful gain from...
First Word
As markets ponder a possible Dec "Fed pause," 4 reasons a pause drives significant asset allocation change
Earlier this week, we noted that a number of investors were citing the growing probability of a Fed "pause" of sorts after the December hike...
US Policy
Fed and the elections
Fed watchers had a busy time last week with the release of both the minutes from the September FOMC meeting and one of the most...
