equity
- First Word
This past week, one of my long-time clients (and friend) acknowledges stocks have fallen so much in 2022 that a turn eventually happens, but asked:"What will get retail investors to buy stocks again?" Most investors will say the catalyst is when "earnings bottom." We disagreeWe...
- First Word
Equity recovery still seen with "contempt" as many still use 2000-2003 and 2008 lens = rally in face of skepticism
Over the past week or so, a few charts have been making their way across trading desks. These are charts comparing 2022 to the 2000-2003 bear market and the GFC's 2008 bear market. A few trading-oriented clients noted this and I found these two instances on twitter and reddit.the message...
- First Word
Since 1945, post-tax day equity returns strongest when "big tax hit" involved = strengthens case for near-term upside
If someone asked me to describe 2022 so far, it is a "pie in the face" year. The world is facing several key turning points (inflation, supply chains, monetary policy, war) and these combined effects are impacting equities, bonds and commodities in a way not seen in the past 30...
- Daily Technical Strategy
Small caps start to lag again, while Equity Put call ratio hits lowest levels of the year
SPX and QQQ rally stalled out but no evidence of trend change by 3/30 close. Consolidation is more likely than not over the next 2 weeks into mid-April.AAPL nearing January 2022 highs likely to serve as important resistance for Tech.Healthcare’s Wholesale Drug/Supplier group is one of the strongest areas within...
- Daily Technical Strategy
5 Key reasons why Equity lows should be near
Tuesday’s strong showing in rebounding off the lows after Monday evening’s “down” open is a reason to think this recent geopolitical tension might not be all that bearishWhile Consumer Discretionary was hit hard in Tuesday’s session, Financials held up relatively well along with the Defensive groups5 Key technical reasons are...
- Daily Technical Strategy
Equity Put/call reaches 2nd highest level since April ‘20
Last Friday’s break of SPX 4450 turned trends back to negative in the short run, and while bounces look possible in the days ahead to over 4500, more strength over 4590 is going to be necessary before thinking US Equity markets are “out of the woods”Gold, silver have advanced back...
- First Word
Equity markets "de-equitize" faster in 2021 = upside + $3.2T dry powder
To me, this is positive for equities. After all, if interest rates are stabilizing, this reduces the "tail risk" for equity markets. It was in March when many pundits were talking about 10-yr soaring to 4%-plus within 12 months and how this would crush equity P/E. But now, the 10-yr...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Fundamental equity managers want to know…what’s up with these violent rotations?
I just completed a two-day roadshow meeting with our institutional investor clients in Boston/ Providence. The good news is that I found multiple instances where my fundamental equity long-only clients widened their YTD relative performance in the month of August (they bought the dip!). But a few issues seemed to...
- Technical Strategy
Another look back at 2016 as a guide through Q3 weakness
This week’s market sell-off on renewed tariff concerns has understandably alarmed investors to reduce risk and seek safety. However, what I find interesting technically is that this risk-off move continues to track the 2016 market cycle surprisingly well and suggests the correction window will likely be short-lived. As readers here...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
The Fed Cut and Trump Tariff are fueling the "asset light" trade
It seems these days the markets are a broken record. The latest, confusing Fed cut (was it dovish? hawkish? we think somewhere in between), coupled with Trump's latest tariff announcement and a 2.4% drop in the S&P 500 over two days is a scenario that should no longer surprise markets....
