• First Word
Mon August 8

Over the past week or so, a few charts have been making their way across trading desks. These are charts comparing 2022 to the 2000-2003 bear market and the GFC's 2008 bear market. A few trading-oriented clients noted this and I found these two instances...

Humza Khalil OgAY QGBm7E Unsplash
  • First Word
Wed April 20

Since 1945, post-tax day equity returns strongest when "big tax hit" involved = strengthens case for near-term upside

If someone asked me to describe 2022 so far, it is a "pie in the face" year. The world is facing several key turning points (inflation, supply chains, monetary policy, war) and these combined effects are impacting equities, bonds and commodities in a way not seen in the past 30...

Small caps start to lag again, while Equity Put call ratio hits lowest levels of the year   

SPX and QQQ rally stalled out but no evidence of trend change by 3/30 close.  Consolidation is more likely than not over the next 2 weeks into mid-April.AAPL nearing January 2022 highs likely to serve as important resistance for Tech.Healthcare’s Wholesale Drug/Supplier group is one of the strongest areas within...

5 Key reasons why Equity lows should be near

Tuesday’s strong showing in rebounding off the lows after Monday evening’s “down” open is a reason to think this recent geopolitical tension might not be all that bearishWhile Consumer Discretionary was hit hard in Tuesday’s session, Financials held up relatively well along with the Defensive groups5 Key technical reasons are...

Equity Put/call reaches 2nd highest level since April ‘20

Last Friday’s break of SPX 4450 turned trends back to negative in the short run, and while bounces look possible in the days ahead to over 4500, more strength over 4590 is going to be necessary before thinking US Equity markets are “out of the woods”Gold, silver have advanced back...

  • First Word
Tue June 8, 2021

Equity markets "de-equitize" faster in 2021 = upside + $3.2T dry powder

To me, this is positive for equities.  After all, if interest rates are stabilizing, this reduces the "tail risk" for equity markets.  It was in March when many pundits were talking about 10-yr soaring to 4%-plus within 12 months and how this would crush equity P/E.  But now, the 10-yr...

  • Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Fri September 13, 2019

Fundamental equity managers want to know…what’s up with these violent rotations?

I just completed a two-day roadshow meeting with our institutional investor clients in Boston/ Providence. The good news is that I found multiple instances where my fundamental equity long-only clients widened their YTD relative performance in the month of August (they bought the dip!). But a few issues seemed to...

free content
  • Technical Strategy
Fri August 2, 2019

Another look back at 2016 as a guide through Q3 weakness

This week’s market sell-off on renewed tariff concerns has understandably alarmed investors to reduce risk and seek safety. However, what I find interesting technically is that this risk-off move continues to track the 2016 market cycle surprisingly well and suggests the correction window will likely be short-lived. As readers here...

free content
  • Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Fri August 2, 2019

The Fed Cut and Trump Tariff are fueling the "asset light" trade

It seems these days the markets are a broken record. The latest, confusing Fed cut (was it dovish? hawkish? we think somewhere in between), coupled with Trump's latest tariff announcement and a 2.4% drop in the S&P 500 over two days is a scenario that should no longer surprise markets....