• First Word
Tue November 8

Equities have been mostly rising for the past 18 trading sessions following the abrupt reversal on the very "hot" Sept CPI (Oct 13). And markets are at an important crossroads this week -- this week has two events with major implications for financial markets and...

Inflation backwardation is messing up the yield curve, hence the inverted curve not the economic Dim Mak (death touch) of 2006 or 2019

Energy holding up extraordinarily well despite WTI Crude selloff

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Energy getting stronger, while Utilities falling out of favor

The minor consolidation Thursday might not be complete and still looks likely to give Bulls some opportunity to buy dips for those who didn’t participate in early week strength.  However, in the bigger picture, rallies back up to test 3980-4050 look likely into October expiration, and pullbacks should be used...

Energy likely to lead commodities down into late September before bottoming

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Energy stocks have diverged sharply from WTI Crude

The selloff which began last Tuesday does not yet look complete, but I’m expecting this will be finished by this Friday into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.  Given the extent of the recent selloff and accompanying gaps, it’s possible that 4100 might be violated by a small amount.  However, I’m not...

Tactical correction in Energy likely to continue into July

Heading into the end of the month and quarter, we’re reminded that this has been the worst first six months of the year for US Equities since 1970, over 50 years ago. Only five other occasions saw declines of greater than 15% over the first six months, and all five...

Energy looks to have formed temporary bottom along w/ XLU

The bounce in US Equities should be nearing conclusion over the next 24-48 hours, and it’s thought that prices might be still vulnerable to selloffs into end of Q2.  Wednesday’s initial Equity decline failed to get much traction before turning higher, and both Treasuries and Equities seem to be back...

Not Too Late To The Party: Why Energy Could Continue Its Incredible Run

Last December, when the S&P 500 was sitting near all-time highs, Tom Lee made another non-consensus forecast: While warning the first half of this year would be “treacherous,'' he highlighted Energy as a key component of his 2022 strategy. On Dec. 21,2021, he told more than 1,000 members that the...

Energy turning out to be stronger than expected

S&P still grinding sideways, but this consolidation should break out to the upside into Friday’s CPI report and/or early next week before showing much resistance.Energy technicals show a further push up before consolidation;  however, weakness likely does not prove to be as strong as initially expected, and Crude should hold...

Energy still resilient but expecting June peak as Tech bottoms

Stabilization within a trend does not equal “Rally-time” Trends remain under pressureEnergy remains the best performing group, and while stretched, still looks to offer alpha into mid-June;  Exploration and Production sub-sector looks most promising https://youtu. be/iJAiwzFjpZ4 MINOR STABILIZATION DOES NOT EQUATE TO A BULLISH TREND CHANGE   SPX showed some minor...

Energy rebounds with commodities as Equities stall

The near-term rally has begun to show some evidence of stalling, though one still can’t make a firm case that a reversal is underway, nor that this recent rally has negated the potential for a selloff into April.  DJIA showed some evidence of reversing right near its key downtrend line...