• US Policy
Mon November 28

Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the November FOMC meeting.  At the time of the meeting the Committee released a rather dovish statement that was followed by a more hawkish Chair press conference.  At the time I cautioned that, while hawkish, the...

Biggest lesson of Jan 2022 is market fearful of Fed.  But in 2010, fed fund futures expected 2.5% FF by 2012... but that did not happen for another 7 years
  • US Policy
Mon November 21

Fed Minutes and Lame Duck Congress

While Wednesday may be a slow news day as investors and everyone else make final preparations for putting turkeys in the oven, for financial markets it is a big day as the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the November Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting.  As I have written...

  • US Policy
Fri November 18

New Congress leadership decided, much work to do before yearend

This past week saw the framework established for the new Congress which gets sworn in on January 3. Speaker Nancy Pelosi ended her 20 years as leader of the House Democrats serving as the first, and only, woman Speaker. Much has been written about the role she played in managing...

  • US Policy
Tue September 6

Congress returns, Powell speaks, Midterms only 2 months away

The Senate returns today and the House next week with one must-pass bill on the agenda – Continuing Resolution (CR). The US government’s fiscal year ends on September 30 and Congress needs to pass a stopgap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown.  As we have seen in the past,...

  • US Policy
Mon August 29

Fed reaction, Congress in September, and Midterms

The long awaited speech by Fed Chair Powell set the tone for further rate increases as markets anticipate the next meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) on September 20/21. As Chair Powell spoke he was likely haunted by his remarks in 2021 when he addressed the potential transitory...

  • US Policy
Mon August 22

Powell speaks, Congress agenda and Midterms

Friday could be a big day for Fed Watchers as Chair Jay Powell will address the annual gathering of Fed officials and economists at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The confab is organized each year by the Kansas City Fed.  Chair Powell is scheduled to speak Friday at 10:00 EDT. Chair Powell...

  • US Policy
Fri July 22

Fed and Congress home stretch

Next week the Fed’s long anticipated July meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) occurs on Tuesday and Wednesday.  At the conclusion of the meetings Fed Chair Powell will meet the press at 2:30pm on Wednesday.  These briefings can be market-moving events and immediately follow the announcement of the...

  • US Policy
Mon April 11

Russia trade legislation proceeds as Congress goes home for recess, Fed watch is on, Early look at 2022 Election

:Congress passes legislation stripping Russia of favorable trade treatment with US.Fed telegraphing 50bps rate hike in May.Midterm elections: House likely to flip, Senate tight races, first look at PA. Congress has gone home for two weeks for the Easter/Passover break.  With Congress out of town I will start to look...

  • US Policy
Tue February 22

Congress on recess with busy month of March ahead, Ukraine dominates news

The world is focused on Putin’s Made in Russia Ukraine crisis.  Russia has leverage provided by its role in providing oil and gas to Europe, it will be seen in coming days what impact the crisis has on global energy markets. Is diplomacy over to resolve crisis?  Is the support...

  • US Policy
Fri February 18

Congress Takes Break Before Budget Push

Congress was faced with the threat of a government shutdown today if no action was taken on a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep government funds flowing.  Before it went home for the Presidents Day break the House had passed a three-week extension of government spending running until March 11.  The...

  • US Policy
Mon February 14

Big week for Powell and government budget

The Fed is going to be front and center this coming week as talk about rate increases continues and the Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on the nominations for Powell to be chair and three other candidates to fill vacancies on the Board.   March 15/16 meeting of...