• First Word
 Wed August 17, 2022

"inflationism" bubble is bursting. Breadth ATH. Equities to take cues from bonds (signaling "disinflation") not pundits ("bear rally"). Inflation cooling = we expect ATH before YE

There are many who quibble with the rally since June, citing this as "short covering" or a "garbage rally" -- but market internals are arguing the opposite. There are several ways to see this but take a look at the advance/decline line below:As noted by...

Escalation over the weekend, while negative, potentially raise odds 1H low is in. Strengthens case for BEEF
  • First Word
 Wed August 10, 2022
Cases now rising in 16 states (+5 vs last week) but this is our baseline. While incoming inflation is hot, financial markets (breakevens) see cooling of risk

2022 bear market 164 days = 25% of preceding bull. Median bear (since 1942) = 21% = Odds bottom in high = Buy the dip regime intact

The July CPI report is released today (8/10) at 8:30am ET and while we do not know if this report will be hotter than consensus, there will be some things to watch in this "hard" inflation report:headline CPI will fall below "core CPI" driven by falling gasolineheadline CPI of +0.27%...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
 Fri June 12, 2020
Bears Fight Back and Stocks fall 5%; Rally Trend Unbroken
  • Technical Strategy
 Fri September 13, 2019
Watch for Cyclicals bottoming for sign of new up cycle

Watch for Cyclicals bottoming for sign of new up cycle

You have to be impressed by the persuasive power of price movement on sentiment and headlines. I’m obviously just a bit biased, but the sudden reversal from bearish to bullish headlines only reinforces the importance of including technical analysis in one’s investment process. Why? Well, despite the short-term wiggles that...

  • Your Weekly Roadmap
 Sat May 25, 2019
Street signs for Wall St. and Broad St. hang at the corner outside the New York Stock Exchange
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