By Vito J. Racanelli, August 29, 2019

There’s a narrative in markets—fueled by headlines—that soybean farmers could cost President Donald Trump the 2020 election. I beg to differ. He might indeed lose the election, but it won’t be the beans.

In trade wars and headlines, facts sometimes get in the way of the story. A reasonable review of the agricultural and electoral data, as we’ll see below, suggests the likelihood of Trump losing a meaningful portion of the farm state vote that he won in 2016 is a low percentage bet. Simply stated, in the most important soybean states that went for Trump in 2016, they did so in such a big way that it would have to get very bad to cause a switch of allegiances. 

In 2020, the reversal necessary to cost him electoral votes—remember that’s what elects presidents—is going to be a tall order for the Democratic candidate, whoever he or she is. Trump’s average margin of victory in the soybean states he won was over 20%.  

It’s true that some farmers are hurting, hit by a double whammy of reduced soybean sales to China and lower commodity prices. According to the USDA, U.S. total soybean exports this year at August 1, 2019, were 42.0 million tons, down 11.3 million from the year ago period. Much of that was due to exports to China, 10.6 million tons, down from 16.9 million in the same period of 2018. (See table.)  The second whammy is price: Outside the U.S. soybean prices are down 14%.

In calendar 2018, the U.S. imported a record $539.5 billion in goods from China and sent $120.3 billion there, for a trade deficit of nearly $420 billion.  That’s why Trump is seeing red.  I’m not going to discuss the U.S long term structural deficit with China nor the likely poor efficacy of tariffs and trade wars, but suffice to say I think they are bad for the U.S., bad for China, and bad for the world. I understand the frustration with China, but given that the U.S. is a democracy and China is totalitarian, it’s more likely that China can tough it out than the President be re-elected.

The 2018 U.S. exports to the Middle Kingdom ($120.3 billion) were down from about $130 billion in 2017, and almost the entire difference was soybean and corn. The U.S. is a net importer from China in most market segments such as consumer electronics, apparel, furniture and industrial supplies. The one major exception: agriculture. Soybeans made up a big chunk of the U.S.’s worsening 2018 trade deficit with China. If you want a superficial assessment, it’s that soybeans will cost Trump the 2020 election.

But let’s look at the big soybean states that went for Trump and by how much. (See table below.) According to a study done last year by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the top 10 soybean producing states (2018 data) made up nearly 80% of U.S. soybean production. Trump won 8 of them by significantly large margins, and lost one, Minnesota, by a small amount.

Given those “yuge” winning margins in the eight states, it would take a rather large voter U-turn there to cost him the electoral votes. Could it happen? Sure, but how likely is that?  For example, even if he lost the two states with his smallest margins of victory, Ohio and Iowa, but repeated in the other six, that would still leave Trump with 282 electoral votes. That assumes he repeated victory in all the other states he won in 2016.  It might be a narrow victory, to be sure, and other factors could still cost him.

Here’s another reason why soybeans aren’t scary for Trump. Despite the pain to farmers and consumers, Americans like his tough line in general, according to a recent story by The Wall Street Journal. Top Congressional Democrats and Republicans have applauded his aggressive line and polls show mistrust of China is growing across party lines, the newspaper reported.

China takes about 7%-8% of the U.S. total of exports. The US Trade Representative Office notes the other top export categories to China last year were aircraft ($18 billion), machinery ($14 billion), electrical machinery ($13 billion), optical/medical instruments ($9.8 billion), and vehicles ($9.4 billion). Aerospace is concentrated in two states, California and Washington, which are lost causes for Trump.

Remember, the states that gave Trump the electoral victory were Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where he had a total of only about 100,000 votes more than Hilary Clinton, out of 130 million cast. He has the status of incumbent, and short of a recession—given the Democratic opponents so far don’t seem capable of appealing to voters beyond the party’s left leaning base—the 2020 electoral college vote might be closer but the numbers still favor Trump. I’m not endorsing all his policies, just looking at the data.

A more plausible path of a Trump defeat next year is a loss in the toss-up states he won. For example, Michigan (16 electoral votes, $3.6 billion to China), is a big automotive state, and Wisconsin (10, $1.7 billion), has a sizeable oilseed and aerospace exports to China. Who knew? Pennsylvania (20, $2.6 billion) exports tend to be resources.

An interesting study was done recently by DataTrek about where the next recession might begin. Using data from previous recessions concerning the labor markets in states with particularly cyclical economies and with lower-than-average education attainment, DataTrek concluded that one 3-state area could be the recession vector: Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are right next door. My colleague and resident D.C. expert Tom Block says if he had to pick one important state it’s Ohio, sometimes overlooked as a soybean state. In recent years, no Republican has been elected without it.

Where could I be wrong? The trade wars could worsen to the point that the global economic slowdown turns into a recession. Of course, there are many political and economic unknowns that could materialize between now and November 2020.Bottom Line: Short of a recession in the next six to 12 months, which isn’t my view, don’t look for soybeans to trip up Trump.