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Signal from Noise

Signal from Noise

Summary American Tower is one of the world’s largest REITs with a very different risk profile than most real estate sector names including a unique counter-cyclical (or counter-COVID) portfolio characteristics. The company has a lucrative multi-tenant communications property model exposed to all sorts of high-growth technological trends like the shift to 5G. The company has...

Towering Over The Headline Risk ($AMT)
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  • Signal from Noise
Mar 18, 2020

Market Discounts Recession; GDP, EPS Growth Worries Mount

– Our base case is U.S. virus peak in May and SPX bottoms around 2200-2400 – Now market doesn’t care that pandemic growth seems to be slowing in some places – PMs seem to have written off 2020 and look to 2021, but EPS visibility low Having lived through three...

The Oracle of Aptiv ($APTV)

Summary Aptiv is a leading innovator and provider of technology and software related to Electric Vehicles. The company has turned around from a clunky legacy auto supplier to a leading innovator and indispensable player in the EV revolution. The company’s sprawling legacy assets and colossal production capacity mixed with the...

Dexcom ($DXCM): Battle-Tested and Data-Driven

Summary Dexcom is a leading manufacturer of real-time Continuous Glucose Monitors (rtCGM) in the United States and many parts of the world and provides customers with significant benefits and cost-savings. The company has a track record of industry-leading growth and returns to shareholders; it has a deep connection with its...

Alibaba ($BABA): Rich Country, Strong Army

Summary While political risk has significantly eroded BABA’s share price, the recent actions by the CCP against the company, including the largest ever anti-trust fine in China’s history, likely mark the interim extreme and bottom for political risk and outcomes will likely improve from here. On the 100th anniversary of...

Live Nation (LYV): We Love Rock N' Roll

Summary Live Nation (LYV, $91.98) is the quintessential example of an Epicenter stock; it lost 95% of revenue at the height of the pandemic and was forced to significantly mitigate interrupted revenue with cost-cutting. The company is by far the largest operator in the events business. The advantages of scale...

Booking Holdings ($BKNG)- Work Horse, Not Showpony

Summary BKNG has so far lagged behind its online travel peers this year despite several strengths we see potentially leading to price appreciation as travel recovers. BKNG has a much more significant portion of International revenue, with as much as 90% of revenue coming from outside the US. This will prove an asset as 2021 […]

Nvidia ($NVDA): The Cisco Kid

Summary Nvidia is a semi-conductor juggernaut with one of the most impressive track records of growth on Wall Street in recent history. The current price of the stock is $713.00. The company’s talented management and personnel are likely to continue improving as talent chases stock gains in Silicon Valley, furthering...

EOG Resources: The Death of a Shalesman

Summary The shale industry is looking attractive given high oil prices and recent trends in the industry that responded to investor concerns and previous failures. EOG Resources has been a leader in the industry not only in reducing costs but also in reducing environmental externalities. The company significantly mitigates the...

DJIA Stalwart American Express ($AXP) Will Likely Flourish As Travel Returns

American Express is a pillar of consumer finance. Many may not be aware that its invention of the Traveler Cheque in 1891 was instrumental in facilitating the spread of global commerce in the 20th century. Many may also be unaware that Lehman Brothers was formerly the investment banking arm of...

CME Group’s History of Growth and Durable Advantage Not Going Away Any Time Soon

CME is an exceedingly complicated business to understand in some ways but also a simple one. It is at the forefront of risk management and mitigation and a volume-based business that is highly correlated to economic and commodity cycles. While it has an impressive Market Data division that is growing,...

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