Divergences Likely to Persist Array ( [cookie] => 7584e7-ae0e4f-6a2286-e059cf-305f08 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 591083 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
Well, it seems that the ball game is over, and the bulls have clearly won. Inflation is dead, the Fed should be easing anytime soon, the expected recession has been averted, forward profits expectations are surging higher, valuation levels are now untethered and should rise to all-time highs, and the issue in both the Banking industry and Commercial Real Estate areas are finally behind us. A powerful, broad-based equity bull market is beginning that should take us to over 5000 before year-end. I guess the Wayne’s World Mega happy ending is actually happening. Pardon my ongoing sarcasm, but I could not help myself.
Today, the equity market continued surging higher on the back of the CPI data release and as we head into the big June options expiration on Friday. Despite this upward thrust, my work still suggests the following — 1) Yes, inflation is coming down, but the core at 5.3% remains sticky and still needs lots of work to get it down to the Fed’s 2% target; 2) June does indeed look like skip by Chair Powell and Gang as I have written this for the last month or so; 3) Importantly, however, a skip is NOT likely an all-clear sign that the Fed is done and that any easing is imminent; and 4) the odds for the next Fed action still favors a hike and that the central bank is still a long way away from being able to declare victory over inflation. Thus, investors need to remain wary of further optimism on this front and be mindful that expectations are likely to change at some point during 2H23, which is likely to create headwinds for the overall equity market.
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