The equity markets remain rangebound since 5/22, with varying performance across different indexes — some showing slight gains, others remaining flat or marginally down. However, it is crucial to recognize that the S&P 500 does not encompass the entire breadth of the equity markets. Beneath the surface of the headline benchmark index and the dominating mega-cap tech names, the average equity market reveals signs of weakness, aligning more closely with my forecast over the past six months.  Based on my key indicators and analysis, it is clear that we are not yet in a new bull market and have not fully escaped the challenges that began during 1Q22.

The inflation data released last week and the preliminary reading on May consumer sentiment were certainly not bullish in my view and are now providing additional worries on top of the ongoing problems in the regional bank space. The headline April PPI and CPI data may have revealed continued deceleration in the inflation rate from 2022’s peak readings, but the underlying details clearly suggest prices are remaining quite sticky on the way down, which has been my longstanding expectation. Indeed, the core CPI appears to be stabilizing in the 5% area, while some are pointing to the core PPI (ex-trade) starting to find a f...
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