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FLASH COMMENTS

I am going to keep my comments brief. 

The S&P 500 touched its 200-day moving average last week and while going into the large option expiration on Friday experienced noticeable price weakness and a shift in its recent leadership from the June low. 

What was the cause?  Some are pointing to the continuation of hawkish Fed speakers, the German PPI data release that came in at a shocking 37% yr/yr, the OPEX, and that the countertrend short squeeze may have finally run out of steam.

From my perspective, the equity rally that began in mid-June that occurred from a severe oversold condition has not been supported by my medium-term work (yes, my tactical work did turn favorable) that is heavily influenced by forward earnings estimate revisions, and I have written in recent publication that I remained a skeptical bear.  

Some key questions that remain unresolved:

  • Are the estimate cuts that my work is still forecasting matter?
  • Or will overly negative positioning and a dovish pivot by the Fed back to accommodative trump my negative sloped ASM indicator?
Well, as readers know, my process doesn’t allow for much wiggle room when my indicators are suggesting that maximum negativity for forward profits has not yet been reached.  Additionally, my other...
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