Earnings season is in full swing. The character of the market has been volatile and choppy. It can be an overwhelming time with many companies reporting and plenty of new information. I wanted to drop a quick line to let our subscribers know about my evolving macro/market views and share a few points.   

In today’s note I want to accomplish a few things:

  1. Reiterate my newly changed macro/market views;
  2. Provide a quick update to subscribers on earnings season; and
  3. Remind subscribers to be on the lookout for my Sector Update early next week

New Macro/Market View

I’ve been mentioning my changing thoughts on markets in my last few releases, but I wanted to give an update. The old view — 1H22 market turbulence and 2H22 resumption of bull market — has now shifted to outright cautious/turning bearish 1H22 and 2H22 uncertain and concerned. 

My key indicators have been suggesting the odds of a clear price break of the February/March lows is rising in likelihood for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq broke lows yesterday before recovering and then going below them again today. The S&P 500 is sitting within one bad headline of the lows seen on the day of Russia’s Invasion. If we do break these lows, I anticipate there will be additional downside. Whether it is a slow bleed for a few months, or a fireworks, “limit-down” kind of action I cannot say with confidence right now. However, I am convinced that we are headed for new lows. Of course, this will ultimately present a great buying opportunity.

I believe that the equity market has not fully priced and fully appreciates the Fed’s hawkish bent and desire to subdue inflation at all costs. As I previously laid out, the diminishing odds of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia means that my second scenario of a drop to the neighborhood of 3,500-3,600 for the S&P 500 is becoming more likely according to my work. Two of the primary legs of my bullish thesis going back to March 2020 have been an accommodative Fed and rising earnings revisions and expectations. Earnings expectations and guidance are now diminishing, and I believe it is inevitable that the analyst community will begin downgrading cyclical stocks. Analysts may be sitting on their hands a bit given the difficulty of projecting demand in certain industries affected by COVID, but I would say this is the next shoe to drop in markets. This, coupled with an aggressive Fed, could make it a rough go for the short to medium term.

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