Given last week’s pullback, I remind investors to keep your eyes on the bigger target, the horizon six, 12, and 18 months away. Our work tells us that equity markets will be higher in the future. Additionally, from a positioning standpoint our proprietary sector single stock quantitative stock models still strongly suggest that offensive, like tech and cyclicals, areas will lead at the expense of cash and traditional defense sectors. I continue to recommend a barbell approach of Growth/FAANG and Value/Cyclicals.

The bears claim the rally since March 23 is non-sensical, a bubble, disconnected from the economy, and only rising because of Fed policy. The impressive equity market bounce that began after our preferred tactical indicators flashed a buy signal on 3/20 has not only made sense, but also has the underpinnings for more gains.

Our research is supported by the following: Extreme oversold condition that occurred on 3/20 and positive inflections in all our preferred tactical indicators; earnings revisions that have clearly turned less bad; investors valuing the S&P 500 and its constituents on some type of forward normalized earnings, NOT trough profits; and valuation expansion that is based on historical factor analysis of what drives multiples. Additionally, unpre...
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