S&P 500 Breaks 5,600 Level As Inflation Continues to Cool Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss

“It is only through failure and through experiment that we learn and grow.” ~ Isaac Stern

Good evening,

Equities were largely rangebound in the first two days of the week, and on Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose more assertively to close above the 5,600 level for the first time. That was before June CPI numbers came in on Thursday. Headline inflation fell for the first time since 2020 and core CPI rose just +0.06% MoM, and 3.3% YoY. Both showed inflation cooling from May’s data, and both came in below consensus expectations (0.2% and 3.4%, respectively). 

Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee had much to say about that, but perhaps his reflexive response was the most telling: “Whoa.”

As followers of our work know, the shelter and auto-insurance components of CPI have long been lagging real-time data and causing inflation to appear higher than it is, but Thursday’s numbers suggest that “both now seem to be cooling.” Owners Equivalent Rent (OER) saw its lowest increase since August 2021, and shelter rose just +0.2% on the month.