This week has been an exceptionally positive week in COVID-19 daily case data. For each of the last four weekdays, cases have been down vs 7 days ago and despite some expected backlog for the long weekend, we did not see any “payback.” At this pace, daily cases will likely fall below 20,000 next week even with back to school and other headwinds.

At a high level, our research this week shows that daily cases are falling sustainably in 73% of the US while only about 27% of the country is seeing stubborn trends. And while headlines continue to point to rising case figures, this is primarily attributable to seasonality, as the underlying data points to a rapid retreat in cases.

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