Daily COVID-19 cases saw a surprising improvement Wednesday with daily cases coming in at 38,377 which is down -5,235 vs 7D ago. Typically, Wednesday cases see a big surge vs 1D ago (usually up +6k or so) but was flat. This is a break in pattern vs the prior 10 days where daily cases were flat vs 7D ago. I don’t want to jump the gun, but this positive surprise to the downside is a nice inflection. Perhaps the surge associated with back to school is being offset by the organic retreat in cases.

This week, there was no new outbreak in NY tristate nor Northeast, no new outbreak in 4 epicenter states, FL, CA, AZ, TX, or F-CAT, but continuing rise in cases from states with low case prevalence. The improvement we saw in cases this week is the largest in two weeks and at this pace we could see daily cases sub-30,000 next week, which would be a convincing improvement.

Stocks reacted strongly Wednesday to the CDC notifying states to prepare for a vaccine by November 1. As the Bloomberg story below notes, the CDC is asking states to remove obstacles to prepare for widespread distribution on that date. If a bona-fide vaccine is available November 1, this is a big deal. The US Project “Warp speed” targeted the availability of a vaccine by early 2021, and one rolling out November...

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