Crypto Cross-Corr. Proves Retail Rise, More Sideways Action Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
The S&P 500 closed at 4,155.86 down from 4,173.85 last Friday. The day started stronger and markets peaked at intraday high of 4,188.72 on Friday before fading into the close. Yet again, that differential masks a much bumpier ride in between. It was just another manic Wednesday this week. Another sell-off, not quite as severe as the one a week before, roiled markets on Wednesday. The S&P 500 hit an intraday low of just over 4061 that day before closing significantly higher. The initial volatility, as my colleague Tom Lee pointed out, actually masked what was a pretty bullish day. Despite massive stress that spilled to stocks crypto markets held and prices recovered significantly.
Despite the week’s volatility, we saw several bullish signals for equities. The price action on the VIX was pretty telling. It failed to crack the previous levels of the previous Wednesday and essentially closed flat. This coupled with a large and rising amount of institutional funds on the sidelines in cash makes us think that this market, namely our favorite Epicenter names, are supremely positioned to climb a wall of worry. High flying technology names meanwhile appear distinctly positioned to ‘fall down the slope of hope’. We keep getting questions whether Technology is low enough to buy yet. This in itself appears to validate the saying and suggest that selling in the sector has not necessarily climaxed. One of the things that has been consistent in pretty much all the economic numbers coming out has been the strength of the US consumer balance sheet. Many investors plausibly wondered what would happen to an economy 70% dependent on consumer spending, many of those consumers unable to cover an unexpected $500 expense without borrowing. However, against the odds the US consumer has emerged from this crisis much stronger than before. As we pointed out in the beginning of the crisis the income interruption was affecting a different section of income quintiles compared to the Global Financial Crisis and thus demand would not be as significantly interrupted. The wages that were interrupted were largely replaced by the government, in some cases resulting in a net increase in consumer purchasing power. The quintessential question for stocks is, what will consumers do with this glut of money? Will they zoom and stay home on the Pelton and play games on their computer? Or are they going to go out to theme parks, concerts, restaurants and road trips? We think it is the latter. Cultural blind spots on Wall Street are causing a lot of people to miss the moment pretending we didn’t just go through a pandemic that will likely permanently alter consumer behavior, and the many businesses that had to survive periods with extremely curtailed revenue.


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Thomas J. Lee
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