Where is the Economy Headed? Here’s What Six Weird Indicators Show.

The economy is confusing—not just for regular people but also for economists. Despite dedicating their entire lives to understanding and predicting it, they still get it wrong much of the time. 

The start of this year, too, has thrown everyone for a loop. On-and off-again tariffs, spending cuts by DOGE, and mass deportations have hurt everything from CEO confidence to consumer sentiment to potentially even GDP. Google Trends shows that searches for “layoffs” in February hit the highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Perhaps the biggest hit has come from one of the most-followed economic indicators of all time—the stock market. The S&P 500 is down 3.64% this quarter, on course for its worst three-month performance since September 2022. Once upon a time, major stock indexes were one of President Donald Trump’s favorite economic indicators, but they seems to have been taken over by bitcoin. Too bad that one doesn’t look too hot either

Yes, the mood is worrisome, but it can also be argued that this is all soft data. Until money managers sharply cut their positioning and run for the hills, there isn’t any real threat to the economy. On the other side of that argument are concerns that living under months of economic uncertainty could lead consumers...
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