SIGNAL FROM NOISE: General Dynamics ($GD, $199.07): Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick

Key Takeaways

  • General Dynamics is a premier aerospace and defense company with flagship products, a strong history of rewarding shareholders, and a consistently strong record on dividends and buybacks.
  • The end of American military involvement in Afghanistan likely marks the end of the post-9/11 chapter of more conventional spending priorities being diminished by spending on counterinsurgency campaigns.  Biden admin is not funding domestic priorities by cutting defense spending.
  • The general focus of the US Defense Budget is moving towards traditional big-power confrontation and away from the post-9/11 focus that has primarily driven defense policy over the past two decades. The modernization of the nuclear arsenal is an example.
  • General Dynamics is essentially responsible for the future of an entire leg of the US Nuclear Triad and has a solid backlog associated with building the new Columbia Class Ballistic Missile submarine, which will enter service around 2027. These new submarines are perhaps the most essential part of the US strategic deterrent and a top Pentagon priority.
  • The history of quality and the centrality of the company's core products to continued US military dominance makes us believe this is a good portfolio addition that will likely benefit from the secular trend toward multi-polarity on the international stage. The company has strong cash flow and will continue to reward shareholders.
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