- Our base case is U.S. virus peak in May and SPX bottoms around 2200-2400

- Now market doesn’t care that pandemic growth seems to be slowing in some places

- PMs seem to have written off 2020 and look to 2021, but EPS visibility low

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Having lived through three bad bear markets, I thought I’d seen everything. But the rapid demise of stock prices in this one is nothing short of astounding. These are historic times.

There are two things investors are afraid of, both of which remain hard to handicap, the extent of the coronavirus spread and the eventual knock on economic effects. The S&P 500 index is down over 29% since the Feb. 19 high of 3386.

What’s been baffling is that there are incipient signs the COVID-19 virus is coming under control in many of the hardest hit places.  As I’ve noted before, China, where the virus originated, is already showing lower infection and death rates, as is South Korea.  While you won’t see that in the screaming headlines, there are some who think the pandemic will slow. For example, Israeli Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt said recently that “the end of the pandemic is near.” 

Now increasing talk like that should stabilize the stock market—eventually. However,...

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