“It is only by prudence, wisdom, and dexterity, that great ends are attained and obstacles overcome. Without these qualities nothing succeeds.” ― Napoleon Bonaparte
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
We are coming toward the tail end of apple-picking season, and doubtless some families visited nearby orchards last weekend to pay farmers for the privilege of picking fresh Honeycrisps, Fujis, or McIntoshes straight from the tree. Yet while it can be a fun Saturday morning activity (or so we’ve heard, anyway), picking fruit is also serious business. (Just ask Ray Dalio.)
Harvesting produce has always been brutal, backbreaking work. Given U.S. historical dependence on migrant workers who have a less-than-impeccable immigration status and multiple studies showing the economic unfeasibility of wages high enough to convince U.S. citizens to take such jobs, it’s unsurprising that many are looking for machines to perform this essential task.
Such a transition appears to be ramping up when it comes to sturdier, staple crops like wheat and other grains. Automated harvesting is also beginning to be deployed for crops grown indoors, like tomatoes and cucumbers. However, many fruits and vegetables tend to be more delicate and grown outdoors. For such produce, the story is a bit different.
While robots exist that can technically do the job, they cannot do so in a way that matches the dexterity, vision, speed, and experienced judgment of a human picker. Take apples, for instance: there are machines that can pick the fruit, but they do so at a significantly slower rate and are more prone to damaging the produce (and of course nobody wants to buy a bruised apple or crushed blackberry). Furthermore, they often fail to detect fruit that are hidden by leaves and other foliage – for example, current apple-picking machines can only identify and pick 60-70% of fruit. Nor are machines as accurate as humans when it comes to differentiating between fruit ready for harvesting and specimens that need a bit more time.
“Picking apples seems like a very simple thing to do,” Oregon State engineering professor Joe Davidson asserted. However, “replicating the patterns and sense of touch that professional pickers have is very difficult in a machine.”
The human hand, as it turns out, is a marvel of dexterity. We might not need robotic equivalents that can play the guitar like Eddie Van Halen, for example, but tasks that most young children can handle still stymy the machine analogs being designed by engineers at companies like Tesla – as Elon Musk can explain.
Yet there seems to be progress being made. Last week, a Norwegian-American startup called 1X opened pre-orders (projected delivery in 2026) for a general purpose, AI-powered humanoid robot that will (purportedly) help users with household chores and tasks. Although a reporter from The Wall Street Journal found that a test version of the robot wasn’t quite perfect, it did boast a level of dexterity that (sort of) enabled it to open doors and load a dishwasher, while having a grip strong enough to take out the garbage.
What it demonstrated is likely not enough to pose a threat to the skilled migrant workers, and not just because Neo isn’t sturdy enough to handle outdoor weather conditions and needs too much recharging. Nevertheless, the robot’s use of faux “tendon”-like cables rather than metallic gears does suggest the possibility of a gentler, refined dexterity that someday can be worthy of a bushel of apples.
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Q: Can Tesla meet Musk’s self-driving Cybercab timeline?
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Catch up with FS Insight
Supercycles remain intact. With the wall of worries growing, risk/reward is still positive.
Technical
The key takeaway at the end of this week is that Equity markets certainly aren’t immune from weakness following six straight months of higher prices. Most of the late October breadth weakness proved to be an early and effective warning sign about the possibility of some downside volatility, even in the traditionally bullish month of November.
Crypto
It was notable that crypto has outperformed equities by a wide margin, with coins that have underperformed the most this year leading the way higher.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- Democrats Fume Over Deal to End Government Shutdown WSJ
- Trump Suggests $2,000 Payouts to Americans as He Defends Tariffs WSJ
Markets and economy
- The Year’s Hottest Crypto Trade Is Crumbling WSJ
- Italian Pasta Is Poised to Disappear From American Grocery Shelves WSJ
- Why Lower Mortgage Rates Aren’t Enough to Make Homes Affordable, in Charts WSJ
- Gulf between rich and poor risks US downturn, Fed official warns FT
- 5 Charts That Explain the Labor Market BR
Business
- Robinhood wants to allow amateur traders to invest in AI start-ups FT
- Nvidia’s Jensen Huang wants wants a lot more production from Taiwan Semi. Here’s what that means for the AI story. MW
- Rumble Stock Surges 26%. It’s Getting a Boost From This AI Acquisition. BR
Politics
- Americans See a Government That Can’t Solve Their Problems WSJ
- Consumers on edge as ACA ‘subsidy cliff’ looms: ‘Quite frankly, it’s terrifying’ CNBC
- Unpacking Mamdani’s Viral Victory Speech NYT
- SNAP benefits: Appeals court again rejects Trump admin bid to halt full payment order CNBC
Overseas
- The True Cost of China’s Falling Prices BBG
Of Interest
- Two Top BBC Leaders Quit Over Editing of Trump Documentary NYT
- In Alaska and Hawaii, Higher Food Prices Intensified SNAP Anxiety NYT
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| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11 | 6:00 AM | Oct Sep Small Biz Optimisum | 98.5 | 98.8 |
| 11/13 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep CPI m/m | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 11/13 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep Core CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 11/13 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep CPI y/y | 3 | 3 |
| 11/13 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep Core CPI y/y | 3 | 3 |
| 11/14 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep PPI m/m | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| 11/14 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep Core PPI m/m | 0.3 | -0.1 |