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“I will never abandon New York City. Ever.” — Jerry Seinfeld
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
It is a time-honored tradition: every few years, someone will declare that New York City is “so over.” During and after the pandemic, many took that tradition a step further, pronouncing that New York City was dead. But some measures indicate that New York City might just be in its best shape since the pandemic. Consider the following four points:
#1 Rents are soaring everywhere, boosted by high demand
Let’s be clear: living in NYC has never been cheap. Lately, however, it seems like even affordable places are becoming out of reach. The Bronx, for example, has recently seen a nearly 40% increase in rent prices, according to The New York Times.
In Manhattan, new leases in February were signed at a median of $4,500, marking an increase of 6.4% from a year earlier and a $100 more than the previous record hit in the summer of 2023, according to a Bloomberg story citing Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman. Prices have sharply risen for other boroughs, too, like Brooklyn and Northwest Queens.
Demand for housing is so steep that bidding wars for rentals have returned, though the cloud of tariff-driven economic uncertainty has played its part by making renting seem like a more attractive option.
#2 Residents are coming back
Part of this demand is being driven by the return of residents who left NYC in search of literal greener pastures. The Wall Street Journal recently profiled homeowners who had enough of their Covid dreams. In the case of Rebecca Goldberg Brodsky and her husband, Mitchell Brodsky, their motivation to leave the city in the first place was space. A year later, the couple reversed course, trading their place in Princeton for a smaller condo back in Brooklyn, WSJ reported. They’re far from the only ones, the story said.
#3 Subway ridership is up
For all its undeniable imperfections, the MTA’s subway remains the best way to get around the city. That’s why subway ridership is a good gauge to figure out how many people live in the city, and how they feel about it: historically, New Yorkers have avoided the subway when crime rates surged, for example.
Weekly ridership has rebounded to about 75% of its prepandemic levels, MTA data show. That could be because more workers were called back to the office, or maybe because more people have moved back to the city, or perhaps even tourists.
#4 Bonuses hit records last year
NYC is still the financial capital of the world, and bonuses are a big part of what many employees earn at financial firms each year. Those bonuses come back to the city, accounting for nearly 20% of the city’s total economic activity.
The average bonus rose to a record $244,700 last year—and even if adjusted for inflation, it’s still the highest number since 2021, according to a Wall Street Journal story. The higher bonuses will result in $600 million more in state income-tax revenue and $275 million more for the city than a year earlier, WSJ said.
To be sure, the city may not be back in every single aspect. I know I have issues with the cleanliness on the streets, but it sure looks like NYC’s well on its way to healing and putting the pandemic behind it.
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Catch up with Fundstrat
The terms of “Liberation Day” were a negative surprise. But they are so absurd, that to us, these look to be a negotiating tactic and thus, we see a high likelihood that these will ultimately prove short-lived.
Technical
Wednesday’s announcement brought about a rapid about-face in futures, which have undercut last week’s lows in S&P and NASDAQ futures following the close on Wednesday. While most view a breakdown as being a huge negative for equity structure, my view is that this will bring about capitulation that only partially occurred in mid-March.
Crypto
Despite improving liquidity conditions and favorable seasonality offering reasons for optimism, the ongoing trade war remains the dominant driver of crypto’s next move. As such, we believe it’s prudent to stay patient. While this may seem discouraging, in our view, the roadmap has become more straightforward.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- Wall Street braced for heavy losses as dollar slumps on Trump tariffs FT
Markets and economy
- Apple leads a drop in tech stocks after Trump tariff announcement CNBC
- Tariff hit will be felt ‘the world over,’ ECB’s Lagarde warns WSJ
- Trump import taxes could fall heaviest on Midwest and Southeast, Richmond Fed says REU
Business
- Google Gemini is shaking up its AI leadership ranks SEM
- AppLovin and Amazon emerge as TikTok bidders ahead of Trump’s deadline WSJ
- Trump’s massive 46% Vietnam tariffs could hit Nike, American Eagle and Wayfair CNBC
- Donald Trump kicks off sale of $2.3bn Truth Social stake FT
Politics
- Federal judge drops corruption charges against NYC Mayor Eric Adams SEM
- Some GOP senators break with Trump to symbolically reject Canada tariffs WSJ
- Elon Musk denies role in Trump administration is under pressure FT
- Second buyout offer sent to some federal workers AX
Overseas
- Denmark’s Maersk buys Panama Canal railway FT
Of Interest
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -171
point(s) (-3.0%
) Overnight range: -231 to -148 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -2.77%
Topix -3.08% China SHCOMP -0.24% Hang Seng -1.52% Korea -0.76% Singapore -0.3% Australia -0.94% India -0.34% Taiwan flat |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -2.21%
Stoxx 600 -1.59% FTSE 100 -1.28% DAX -1.7% CAC 40 -2.14% Italy -1.72% IBEX -0.82% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -1.69%
to 102.05 EUR/USD +1.65% to 1.1032 GBP/USD +1.27% to 1.3172 USD/JPY -1.87% to 146.49 USD/CNY +0.42% to 7.2985 USD/CNH +0.2% to 7.3111 USD/CHF -2.0% to 0.8642 USD/CAD -0.62% to 1.4153 AUD/USD +0.67% to 0.6341 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -2.38%
to 83618.74 ETH -3.52% to 1815.19 XRP -3.61% to 2.0495 Cardano -4.37% to 0.6504 Solana -7.67% to 118.19 Avalanche +2.06% to 18.36 Dogecoin -4.94% to 0.1636 Chainlink -5.43% to 12.98 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +18.74%
to 25.54 WTI Crude -3.93% to 68.89 Brent Crude -3.71% to 72.17 Nat Gas -0.12% to 4.05 RBOB Gas -5.11% to 2.212 Heating Oil -4.66% to 2.214 Gold -0.27% to 3125.57 Silver -3.35% to 32.74 Copper -2.38% to 4.921 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -2.9bps
to 4.2733% 3M -2.6bps to 4.2725% 6M -3.5bps to 4.1837% 12M -5.7bps to 3.9466% 2Y -8.6bps to 3.772% 5Y -10.0bps to 3.785% 7Y -9.5bps to 3.9008% 10Y -8.3bps to 4.0474% 20Y -5.5bps to 4.4758% 30Y -4.7bps to 4.4535% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 7.8bps to -53.2
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 1.1bps to 27.3 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 3.7bps to 40.4 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.67%
SPX Eq Wt +0.84% NASDAQ 100 +0.75% NASDAQ Comp +0.87% Russell Midcap +1.25% R2k +1.65% R1k Value +0.66% R1k Growth +0.86% R2k Value +1.34% R2k Growth +1.95% FANG+ +0.89% Semis +0.75% Software +1.33% Biotech +3.11% Regional Banks +1.42% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Cons Disc +2.02% Indu +0.93% Fin +0.9% Materials +0.79% SPX +0.67% Healthcare +0.63% Tech +0.56% REITs +0.47% Utes +0.44% Energy +0.07% Comm Srvcs -0.14% Cons Staples -0.18% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +1.6bp
to 390bp All Sectors ex-Energy +1.5bp to 353bp Cons Disc +2.3bp to 381bp Indu +1.7bp to 292bp Tech +1.2bp to 400bp Comm Srvcs -0.3bp to 576bp Materials +1.3bp to 361bp Energy +3.5bp to 391bp Fin Snr +0.5bp to 326bp Fin Sub +3.1bp to 246bp Cons Staples +3.1bp to 274bp Healthcare +3.8bp to 411bp Utes -1.6bp to 265bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/3 | 8:30AM | Feb Trade Balance | -123.5 | -131.382 |
| 4/3 | 9:45AM | Mar F S&P Srvcs PMI | 54.2 | 54.3 |
| 4/3 | 10AM | Mar ISM Srvcs PMI | 52.9 | 53.5 |
| 4/4 | 8:30AM | Mar AHE m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 4/4 | 8:30AM | Mar Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 4/4 | 8:30AM | Mar Non-farm Payrolls | 140.0 | 151.0 |
| 4/8 | 6AM | Mar Small Biz Optimisum | n/a | 100.7 |
| 4/9 | 2PM | Mar 19 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0.0 |
