A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“No man is an island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main.” – John Donne
Chart of the Week
Good morning!
Tariff-led fatigue has led stocks to seesaw this year. At least for now, the short-term winner has been anything but America.
The S&P 500 has tumbled 1.7% thus far in 2025, raising questions about the sustainability of the two-year long bull market that has seen consecutive annual gains of over 20%.
The chaos at home seems to have benefited foreign-stock indexes. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up a blockbuster 23% this year, Germany’s DAX has added 15%, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 has advanced 8.4%, Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC has gained 6.6%, and the Shanghai Composite has edged 3.4% higher.
Currencies have been riding the wave, too. The euro last week posted its largest increase against the U.S. dollar since 2009, after Germany announced a historic fiscal stimulus that could help push Europe out of its economic rut.
Since President Donald Trump started a trade war, investors’ decades-long playbook has been turned on its head. The U.S. economy and the stock market have long been the envy of the world, boosted by the government running huge deficits to help maintain growth and the central bank keeping borrowing costs low. But all that suddenly looks vulnerable to a pullback because of the likely impact of tariffs on consumer spending.
The reordering of American policy has also confused many. The American right wing is now closer to Russia, Turkey, and China in attitudes toward international co-operation to appetite for an autocratic leadership style to trust in institutions, according to an FT analysis of the World Values Survey.
To be sure, this doesn’t mean that America can’t continue its outperformance. Over the long term, America has reigned on top—and while these foreign markets may look cheap and attractive, it doesn’t necessarily translate to good long-term investments because of political and currency risks.
But for now, it means that the so-called “America first” approach could threaten the American dream.
Catch Up With FS Insight
Friday was an important day last week, as we saw incrementally positive glimmers of a Trump and Fed put, with the economy holding up better than expected. Also Mark Newton thinks we potentially bottomed but follow through is needed this week.
TECHNICAL
What’s important at this point is that any rally shows above-average participation and forms five waves off the lows, which gives some clarity about the timing of a pushback to new highs.
CRYPTO
We dive into the latest executive order and its implications, explore why the conversation around SBR may not be over just yet, and discuss a new project community that is considering implementing token buybacks.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- Canada’s next prime minister has managed the financial crisis, Brexit and now Trump’s trade war AP
- China slaps tit-for-tat tariffs on $22 billion of US farm goods SEM
Markets and economy
- Bitcoin falls as much as 6.5% as volatility continues after Trump’s bitcoin reserve plan CNBC
- Trump ‘an agent of chaos and confusion,’ economists warn — but a U.S. recession isn’t in the cards yet CNBC
- Global stocks fall as Wall Street heads for further declines FT
Business
- Who Likes Tariffs? Some U.S. Industries Are Eager for Them. NYT
- Novo Nordisk shares fall 6.3% after latest trial results for its next-generation weight loss drug CNBC
- Rocket Companies to buy real estate firm Redfin in $1.75 billion deal CNBC
Politics
- Trump to appoint DRC envoy as US eyes minerals pact SEM
- In Rural Texas, a Measles Outbreak Hasn’t Swayed Vaccine Skeptics WSJ
- Utah to Become First State to Ban Fluoride in Public Water WSJ
Overseas
- Germany can spend almost €2tn without harming growth, economists say FT
Of Interest
- AI made its way to vineyards. Here’s how the technology is helping make your wine AP
- Tennis players to receive paid maternity leave courtesy of Saudi Arabia SEM
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -64
point(s) (-1.1%
) overnight range: -73 to -18 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.38%
Topix -0.29% China SHCOMP -0.19% Hang Seng -1.85% Korea +0.27% Singapore -0.39% Australia +0.18% India -0.41% Taiwan -0.52% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.93%
Stoxx 600 -0.75% FTSE 100 -0.44% DAX -1.08% CAC 40 -0.50% Italy -0.50% IBEX -0.94% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.12%
to 103.71 EUR/USD +0.19% to 1.0854 GBP/USD +0.05% to 1.2927 USD/JPY +0.63% to 147.11 USD/CNY -0.18% to 7.2592 USD/CNH -0.19% to 7.2593 USD/CHF +0.40% to 0.8764 USD/CAD -0.08% to 1.4384 AUD/USD +0.33% to 0.6326 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed -4.6bps
to -35.4bps
10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed -0.9bps to 29.0bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 1.0bps to 30.2bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.55%
SPX Eq Wt +0.94% NASDAQ 100 +0.74% NASDAQ Comp +0.70% Russell Midcap +0.74% R2k +0.43% R1k Value +0.61% R1k Growth +0.44% R2k Value +0.43% R2k Growth +0.44% FANG+ +0.18% Semis +2.42% Software -0.02% Biotech +0.28% Regional Banks -0.12% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Cons Staples -0.61% Fin -0.58% Cons Disc -0.31% Healthcare +0.03% Materials +0.25% Comm Srvcs +0.49% SPX +0.55% REITs +0.60% Indu +1.20% Tech +1.44% Energy +1.64% Utes +1.84% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +6.1bps
to 343bps All Sectors ex-Energy +10.3bps 319bps Cons Disc +1.4bps 316bps Indu +4.3bps 255bps Tech +2.2bps 344bps Comm Srvcs +4.0bps 531bps Materials +11.3bps 309bps Energy +6.5bps 347bps Fin Snr +0.2bps 284bps Fin Sub +3.0bps 218bps Cons Staples +74.3bps 297bps Healthcare +2.4bps 363bps Utes +4.0bps 243bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/10 | 11:00 AM | Feb NYFed 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 3 |
| 3/11 | 6:00 AM | Feb Small Biz Optimisum | 101 | 102.8 |
| 3/11 | 10:00 AM | Jan JOLTS | 7665 | 7600 |
| 3/12 | 8:30 AM | Feb CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| 3/12 | 8:30 AM | Feb Core CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 3/12 | 8:30 AM | Feb CPI y/y | 2.9 | 3 |
| 3/12 | 8:30 AM | Feb Core CPI y/y | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| 3/13 | 8:30 AM | Feb PPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 3/13 | 8:30 AM | Feb Core PPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 3/14 | 10:00 AM | Mar P UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 3/14 | 10:00 AM | Mar P UMich Sentiment | 63.5 | 64.7 |