A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“At the heart of quantum mechanics is a rule that sometimes governs politicians or CEOs – as long as no one is watching, anything goes.” ― Lawrence M. Krauss
Overnight
Walmart stock Is dropping – earnings were strong but guidance missed BAR
Trump administration trying to rehire USDA bird flu officials it fired BBC
CEO confidence at highest level in three years, new survey finds AX
UK to cut securities settlement time in 2027 FT
Trump makes push for control of independent US regulators FT
Musk ally demands admin–level access to system that lets government text the public 404
Apple launches iPhone 16E for $599 with AI and first in-house 5G modem CNET
Alibaba shares pop 11% in premarket after cloud unit, e-commerce growth push up quarterly profit CNBC
Glencore reviews London listing as miners sour on UK market FT
Airbus could bring forward non-U.S. deliveries if Trump tariffs impede trade, CEO says CNBC
Forever 21 plans hundreds of store closures in second bankruptcy BBG
EU cracks down on fast fashion and food waste FT
San Francisco 49ers Weigh 10% Stake Sale at $9 Billion Valuation BBG
Ancient Rome Was So Polluted With Lead That IQs Dropped WSJ
Hurricane, dog who protected Obama White House from intruder, dies at 15 NYT
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -16
point(s) (-0.3%
) overnight range: -22 to -4 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -1.24%
Topix -1.18% China SHCOMP -0.02% Hang Seng -1.60% Korea -0.65% Singapore -0.17% Australia -1.14% India -0.09% Taiwan -0.49% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.55%
Stoxx 600 +0.20% FTSE 100 -0.39% DAX +0.34% CAC 40 +0.43% Italy +0.26% IBEX +0.70% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.21%
to 106.94 EUR/USD +0.16% to 1.0440 GBP/USD +0.17% to 1.2608 USD/JPY +0.99% to 149.99 USD/CNY +0.28% to 7.2583 USD/CNH +0.43% to 7.2533 USD/CHF +0.24% to 0.9024 USD/CAD +0.14% to 1.4214 AUD/USD +0.46% to 0.6373 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed -0.9bps
to -7.3bps
10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed -0.8bps to 25.2bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.2bps to 23.4bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.24%
SPX Eq Wt +0.20% NASDAQ 100 +0.05% NASDAQ Comp +0.07% Russell Midcap -0.35% R2k -0.34% R1k Value +0.31% R1k Growth -0.00% R2k Value -0.52% R2k Growth -0.18% FANG+ -0.16% Semis +0.44% Software -1.75% Biotech +1.31% Regional Banks -0.37% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Materials -1.16% Fin -0.03% Comm Srvcs +0.00% Cons Disc +0.03% Indu +0.08% Tech +0.15% REITs +0.16% SPX +0.24% Utes +0.45% Energy +0.70% Cons Staples +0.79% Healthcare +1.26% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +1.6bps
to 310bps All Sectors ex-Energy +1.0bps 291bps Cons Disc +3.8bps 278bps Indu +1.7bps 227bps Tech +1.5bps 310bps Comm Srvcs +0.3bps 498bps Materials +0.3bps 270bps Energy +1.6bps 288bps Fin Snr +1.9bps 261bps Fin Sub -1.4bps 201bps Cons Staples -0.4bps 288bps Healthcare -0.2bps 353bps Utes +1.9bps 222bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/21 | 9:45 AM | Feb P S&P Manu PMI | 51.3 | 51.2 |
| 2/21 | 9:45 AM | Feb P S&P Srvcs PMI | 53 | 52.9 |
| 2/21 | 10:00 AM | Feb F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 2/21 | 10:00 AM | Feb F UMich Sentiment | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| 2/21 | 10:00 AM | Jan Existing Home Sales | 4.13 | 4.24 |
| 2/21 | 10:00 AM | Jan Existing Home Sales m/m | -2.59 | 2.17 |
| 2/25 | 9:00 AM | Dec Case Shiller 20-City m/m | n/a | 0.41 |
| 2/25 | 10:00 AM | Feb Conf Board Sentiment | 103.5 | 104.1 |
| 2/26 | 10:00 AM | Jan New Home Sales | 679.5 | 698 |
| 2/26 | 10:00 AM | Jan New Home Sales m/m | -2.7 | 3.6 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
Our latest client surveys show 53% citing tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk. However, the currently low VIX warns “never short a dull market
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- Minor consolidation possible following the push back to new highs for SPX, QQQ.
- Technology might underperform short-term following minor peaks in PLTR and META.
- US Henry Hub-based Natural Gas likely to show further gains given frigid weather.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
There are multiple factors behind SOL’s recent underperformance—ranging from a murkier macro backdrop to an impending major unlock. While this pressure persists, we see it ultimately leading to a compelling opportunity.
Click HERE for more.
First News
On Jan. 14, Microsoft executive Mitra Azizirad wrote a blog post in which she declared 2025 as “the year to become quantum-ready.” She further asserted that “we are at the advent of the reliable quantum computing era.”
Not everyone in tech agrees.
Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who – it should be noted – might have a slight bias against a class of processors that could slash demand for his company’s chips, forecast at the beginning of this year that useful quantum computing was “decades” away – likely 15 to 30 years, he estimated. But Google’s Sundar Pichai also had a more conservative view – five to 10 years away, he told attendees at the World Governments Summit in Dubai last week.
Yesterday, Microsoft announced a quantum computing chip, the Majorana 1, that arguably explains why Azizirad was so optimistic last month.
Quantum computing’s promise lies in its use of qubits – harnessing subatomic particles (yes, like the ones Dr. J. Robert Oppenheimer studied in that three-hour long movie) to implement a computing methodology that can solve certain types of problems exponentially more quickly than any traditional computer. (In December, Google announced that its Willow quantum computer had completed a performance benchmark algorithm in five minutes. The same feat would have taken the Frontier supercomputer, currently the second-fastest traditional computer in the world, 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
The problem is that physical qubits until now have been notoriously fragile and unstable. Even tiny deviations from pristine operating conditions can cause errors and data loss. The Majorana 1 seeks to avoid the problem altogether, using a new chip material – a topological superconductor – that happens to represents a new state of matter – neither solid, liquid, or gas. Due to the unique physical properties of this material, the chip can thus manipulate Majorana quasiparticles (named for the brilliant Italian physicist Ettore Majorana) to instead use topological qubits, which are inherently more stable and resilient. Quantum computers built on such technology could therefore be more easily upscaled.
Nevertheless, Microsoft technical fellow and team leader Chetan Nayak cautions that yesterday’s announcement is not that of an end goal, but merely an important milestone that puts the quest for a fault-tolerant quantum computer “in years, not decades.” Still, given that the Majorana 1 chip required 17 years of research to bring to fruition, the company’s celebration is understandable.