A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“You win some, you lose some, you wreck some.” – Dale Earnhardt
Overnight
Trump signals Ukraine to blame for war, Zelenskyy accuses US president of living in a ‘disinformation bubble’ FT
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro charged over alleged coup SEM
Early data show homicides dropped 16% in 2024 AX
China signals softening stance on private sector as economy flounders SEM
Federal mortgage insurer to lay off nearly half its workforce BBG
SEC seeks India’s help in Adani fraud probe RTR
Embattled EV maker Nikola files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection CNBC
Analog Devices Tops Estimates, Sees Cyclical Recovery IBD
Vanguard triumphs over State Street to take largest ETF crown FT
Mexico threatens Google with lawsuit over “Gulf of America” label on maps AX
Broadcom’s Deal Magic Would Get Its Biggest Test With Intel WSJ
Fidelity Investments Reports Record Annual Profit, Revenue WSJ
Baidu Profit Doubles, Revenue Falls Less Than Expected WSJ
FDA staff reviewing Musk’s Neuralink were included in DOGE employee firings, sources RTR
Former OpenAI technology chief Mira Murati launches rival start-up FT
KFC moves U.S. headquarters from Kentucky to Texas CNBC
Pope Francis has pneumonia in both lungs, Vatican says BBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -6
point(s) (-0.1%
) Overnight range: -7 to +10 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -0.27%
Topix -0.3% China SHCOMP +0.81% Hang Seng -0.14% Korea +1.7% Singapore +0.22% Australia -0.73% India -0.05% Taiwan -0.26% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.36%
Stoxx 600 -0.24% FTSE 100 -0.28% DAX -0.29% CAC 40 -0.46% Italy +0.29% IBEX -0.6% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.14%
to 107.2 EUR/USD -0.25% to 1.042 GBP/USD -0.22% to 1.2585 USD/JPY -0.2% to 151.75 USD/CNY +0.15% to 7.2866 USD/CNH +0.21% to 7.2911 USD/CHF +0.09% to 0.9041 USD/CAD +0.08% to 1.4207 AUD/USD -0.02% to 0.6352 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +1.29%
to 96230.04 ETH +2.7% to 2722.53 XRP +1.63% to 2.574 Cardano +2.64% to 0.7664 Solana +2.47% to 171.72 Avalanche +1.27% to 23.82 Dogecoin +2.05% to 0.2537 Chainlink +2.01% to 18.02 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX -0.07%
to 15.34 WTI Crude +0.64% to 72.31 Brent Crude +0.57% to 76.27 Nat Gas -0.3% to 4.0 RBOB Gas +0.45% to 2.096 Heating Oil +0.24% to 2.446 Gold +0.32% to 2945.38 Silver +0.45% to 33.03 Copper +0.19% to 4.599 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M +0.2bps
to 4.3274% 3M +0.3bps to 4.317% 6M -2.6bps to 4.3507% 12M -0.9bps to 4.2152% 2Y -0.4bps to 4.3015% 5Y -0.2bps to 4.4004% 7Y +1.1bps to 4.4856% 10Y +1.0bps to 4.5601% 20Y +1.8bps to 4.8411% 30Y +2.1bps to 4.7868% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 1.5bps to -3.6
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 1.6bps to 25.6 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.7bps to 22.3 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.24%
SPX Eq Wt +0.77% NASDAQ 100 +0.23% NASDAQ Comp +0.07% Russell Midcap +0.68% R2k +0.45% R1k Value +0.57% R1k Growth -0.01% R2k Value +0.36% R2k Growth +0.55% FANG+ -0.65% Semis +1.44% Software +1.0% Biotech -0.09% Regional Banks +0.89% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Energy +1.37% Materials +1.23% Utes +0.94% Indu +0.77% Fin +0.77% Tech +0.55% REITs +0.4% SPX +0.24% Cons Staples +0.12% Healthcare -0.26% Cons Disc -0.52% Comm Srvcs -1.26% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -3.5bp
to 305bp All Sectors ex-Energy -3.3bp to 286bp Cons Disc -4.7bp to 271bp Indu +1.1bp to 222bp Tech -2.9bp to 301bp Comm Srvcs -3.5bp to 493bp Materials -3.2bp to 266bp Energy -4.6bp to 286bp Fin Snr -3.5bp to 254bp Fin Sub -3.4bp to 199bp Cons Staples -4.0bp to 283bp Healthcare -4.4bp to 352bp Utes -4.5bp to 217bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/19 | 2PM | Jan 29 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 1.0 |
| 2/21 | 9:45AM | Feb P S&P Manu PMI | 51.4 | 51.2 |
| 2/21 | 9:45AM | Feb P S&P Srvcs PMI | 53.0 | 52.9 |
| 2/21 | 10AM | Feb F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| 2/21 | 10AM | Feb F UMich Sentiment | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| 2/21 | 10AM | Jan Existing Home Sales | 4.13 | 4.24 |
| 2/21 | 10AM | Jan Existing Home Sales m/m | -2.59 | 2.17 |
| 2/25 | 10AM | Feb Conf Board Sentiment | 103.5 | 104.1 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
Six weeks into 2025, we see multiple reasons to like Financials and Small-Caps this year. We also see a broadening AI trade.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- We got a very good breakout in both S&P 500 and QQQ, coinciding with a big breakdown in the U.S. dollar.
- Short-term trends are bullish as SPX and QQQ have finally broken out of their respective triangle consolidation patterns, which had been established roughly three months ago, and both SPX and QQQ made new all-time highs and all-time daily high closes as of yesterday, Monday Feb. 18, 2025.
- While seeing a broad-based rally across Equal-weighed indices like RSP would help in having more conviction on the longevity of this rally, at present, it’s right to be long, looking to buy any dips that happen between now and February expiration.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
There are multiple factors behind SOL’s recent underperformance—ranging from a murkier macro backdrop to an impending major unlock. While this pressure persists, we see it ultimately leading to a compelling opportunity.
Click HERE for more.
First News
What’s old is new again. We see this in the enthusiasm young photographers have for Polaroid cameras, in the recent, unfathomable (to those who lived through it) love for cassette tapes, and in the resurgent popularity of board games. There’s another old technology that predates all of those, and though it never went away, it’s enjoying something of a comeback as well.
We’re talking about the internal combustion engine (ICE), invented in 1853 by Father Eugenio Barsai and Felice Matteucci. (Nicolaus Otto invented the first gasoline-powered ICE in 1864.) In recent years, automotive buzz has focused on the global transition to electric vehicles, led by the likes of Tesla and BYD. In some countries, this transition is in advanced stages.For example, Norway recently reported that EVs accounted for 88.9% of new vehicle sales in 2024, while Sweden and Iceland are nipping at Norway’s heels in the race for full electrification, with EVs accounting for 61% and 60% of new-car sales (respectively) in 2024. One think tank has estimated that globally, electric vehicles will account for two thirds of new-car sales by 2030.
It would thus be understandable to hypothesize that ICEs are about to be a sunsetting technology, but an increasing number of carmakers think there’s still some life in them – at least if one examines their research & development plans for gas-powered engines. Last week, Jochen Goller, a board member of BMW, told the Financial Times that the German carmaker intends to continue investing in internal combustion engine technology. Citing President Donald Trump’s well-known antipathy toward electric vehicles (though the President has described his buddy Elon Musk’s Tesla vehicles as “incredible“), Goller said, “I think it would be naive to believe that the move towards electrification is a one-way road. It will be a rollercoaster ride.”
But if BMW is responding to Trump’s immediate elimination of former President Joe Biden’s “electric vehicle mandate” after his second inauguration, other automakers were betting on the continued viability of the internal combustion engine even before Trump won his second term.
Last August, Mazda announced plans for a new version four-cylinder engine in its Skyactiv line scheduled for launch in 2027. Also last summer, Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius predicted that ICE technology would “last well into the 2030s” as he admitted it would spend “more money than previously planned.” Porsche patented a new ICE design last fall. Manufacturers are also experimenting with hydrogen combustion engines – like Barsai’s and Matteucci’s original ICE (see above), only many generations more advanced. Here, too, what’s old is new again.
The internal combustion engine that we all grew up with might not be here to stay, but those in the know do not seem to think they’re going away just yet.
