A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“All you need is love.” – The Beatles
Trump signs sweeping reciprocal tariff plan, says more coming CNBC
Modi boasts of ‘mega-partnership’ with US after meeting Trump SEM
Trump’s chosen U.S. prosecutor in Manhattan resigns after being ordered to drop Eric Adams case WSJ
Strike damages Chernobyl site as leaders meet to discuss Ukraine war NYT
Jihadist motivation in Munich attack, prosecutors say BBC
Singapore’s annual GDP expands at fastest pace since 2021, lifted by trade, finance and manufacturing sectors CNBC
Arm to launch its own chip in move that could upend semiconductor industry FT
Meta’s AI may not be as good for ad growth as investors think INF
Birkin bag maker Hermes posts better-than-expected jump in fourth-quarter sales CNBC
Barclays reveals FCA money-laundering probe and tax fight FT
Igloo recalls coolers over finger amputations and injuries BBC
Chubby Checker, Phish and Outkast among Rock Hall nominees NYT
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -6
point(s) (-0.1%
) Overnight range: -7 to +12 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -0.79%
Topix -0.23% China SHCOMP +0.43% Hang Seng +3.69% Korea +0.31% Singapore -0.13% Australia +0.19% India -0.44% Taiwan -1.05% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.04%
Stoxx 600 -0.03% FTSE 100 -0.22% DAX -0.3% CAC 40 +0.23% Italy +0.11% IBEX -0.01% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.31%
to 106.98 EUR/USD +0.04% to 1.0469 GBP/USD +0.1% to 1.2578 USD/JPY -0.18% to 152.52 USD/CNY -0.31% to 7.265 USD/CNH -0.06% to 7.2652 USD/CHF -0.12% to 0.9019 USD/CAD -0.1% to 1.4179 AUD/USD +0.3% to 0.6336 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +0.64%
to 97108.73 ETH +1.61% to 2710.34 XRP +10.09% to 2.754 Cardano -0.06% to 0.8147 Solana +2.94% to 200.77 Avalanche +3.23% to 26.22 Dogecoin +3.89% to 0.2723 Chainlink +3.5% to 19.18 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +0.93%
to 15.24 WTI Crude +0.22% to 71.45 Brent Crude +0.33% to 75.27 Nat Gas +1.46% to 3.68 RBOB Gas -0.14% to 2.108 Heating Oil +0.27% to 2.455 Gold +0.27% to 2936.02 Silver +2.85% to 33.27 Copper +0.04% to 4.78 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -2.1bps
to 4.3029% 3M -1.5bps to 4.3015% 6M -1.8bps to 4.3428% 12M -2.6bps to 4.2301% 2Y -1.6bps to 4.2906% 5Y -1.1bps to 4.3789% 7Y -0.5bps to 4.4538% 10Y -0.2bps to 4.5269% 20Y +0.1bps to 4.7959% 30Y -0.2bps to 4.7348% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 1.9bps to -4.2
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 1.6bps to 23.4 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.0bps to 20.6 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +1.04%
SPX Eq Wt +0.87% NASDAQ 100 +1.43% NASDAQ Comp +1.5% Russell Midcap +0.95% R2k +1.17% R1k Value +0.8% R1k Growth +1.27% R2k Value +1.13% R2k Growth +1.2% FANG+ +1.49% Semis +1.37% Software +1.63% Biotech +0.89% Regional Banks +0.44% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Materials +1.71% Cons Disc +1.6% Tech +1.52% Comm Srvcs +1.08% SPX +1.04% Cons Staples +0.97% REITs +0.84% Energy +0.77% Fin +0.72% Healthcare +0.4% Utes +0.14% Indu +0.09% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -0.2bp
to 297bp All Sectors ex-Energy -0.2bp to 283bp Cons Disc -1.0bp to 236bp Indu -1.3bp to 219bp Tech -2.0bp to 301bp Comm Srvcs -3.5bp to 494bp Materials +3.3bp to 267bp Energy +1.8bp to 291bp Fin Snr -0.2bp to 256bp Fin Sub -0.8bp to 201bp Cons Staples +0.9bp to 281bp Healthcare +2.5bp to 353bp Utes -0.4bp to 221bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/14 | 8:30AM | Jan Import Price m/m | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2/14 | 8:30AM | Jan Retail Sales m/m | -0.2 | 0.4 |
| 2/18 | 10AM | Feb Homebuilder Sentiment | 47.0 | 47.0 |
| 2/18 | 4PM | Dec Net TIC Flows | n/a | 159.888 |
| 2/19 | 2PM | Jan 29 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
Equities managed to stage an upside breakout yesterday, breaking the downtrend in place since mid-December (10 weeks now).
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX and QQQ have both broken out of their well-defined triangle patterns.
- US Dollar breakdown sets stage for severe weakness.
- Silver likely plays catchup to Gold.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
Regulatory developments and institutional adoption continue to bolster the medium- to long-term outlook, but with lingering trade war talks and robust economic data dissuading a dovish Fed pivot, we think the potential for downside volatility in the near-term remains elevated.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Love is in the air, but no one told shares of dating-app providers.
For the less cynical among us, today – Valentine’s Day – is a celebration of love, a romantic day to be shared with that special someone in one’s life, and certainly not a day to be spent alone. Indeed, the motivation to avoid being dateless for Valentine’s Day typically drives a pre-holiday surge of activity in dating apps like Bumble, Hinge, and Match – what Tinder refers to as a “swipe surge.”
Such apps have proliferated in the past decade and for many, they epitomize how Modern Love (™) is done. Yet there are those critical of the trend. Last fall, economists at the St. Louis Fed published a research paper in which they asserted that the rise in popularity of such apps has not, in fact, helped singles find spouses or life partners. As they put it: “Given the proliferation of online dating, we would expect to observe a substantial improvement in the ability to find and meet potential partners […] Instead, the findings show that the data contradict these predictions and suggest that search costs have not changed over time despite the wide use of online dating sites and apps.”
Whether due to word of mouth or experience, singles – particularly the youngest generation adults, agree. Gen Z singles are increasingly abandoning such apps out of disillusionment, as Wired and Forbes both report. Failure to find a connection and disappointment with matches are the two most commonly cited reasons. Revenue per user has climbed (thanks to premium membership options), but the user base itself is shrinking. Such worrying reports might explain why shares of Match Group (MTCH), which owns Tinder, Hinge, Match.com, OKCupid, and others, and Bumble (BMBL) have each underperformed the S&P 500 by such a large margin since their IPOs:
Some dating-app companies hope AI will help them reverse this trend. Grindr, for instance, is developing a so-called “AI wingman” that will help its user base of gay men suggest conversational topics and date ideas, while Match and some startups are toying with developing modern-day AI-powered versions of Cyrano de Bergerac that can flirt with other users (or their own AI chatbots – one never knows) on one’s behalf.
In the meantime, if dating apps are passe and one doesn’t want to fall back on the old-fashioned methods of finding love? A Wall Street Journal article suggests that a growing number of lovelorn think there’s something to be said for pheromone-based perfumes and colognes – even if scientists warn that they’re a scam.
Happy Valentine’s Day!
[Editor’s note: There will be no publications from FS Insight on Monday, Feb. 17, as U.S. markets and Fundstrat offices will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day. ]
