A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“Winners never quit, and quitters never win.” — Vince Lombardi
Overnight
US economy created 143,000 jobs in January FT
How Elon Musk boosted false USAID conspiracy theories to shut down global aid NBC
US farmers ‘prepare for the worst’ in new Trump trade war FT
Japan’s Ishiba makes a whirlwind Washington trip to try to forge a personal connection with Trump AP
Tech Giants Double Down on Their Massive AI Spending WSJ
Amazon hit by strengthening dollar, underscoring risks in tech to overseas reliance CNBC
Hydrogen-Truck Maker Nikola Nears Bankruptcy Filing WSJ
Amazon Pours Fuel on Big Tech Spending After DeepSeek Panic WSJ
India cuts rates for first time in 5 years to combat slowing growth FT
Some Census Bureau data now appears to be unavailable to the public CNBC
The Early Verdict on Tariffs: Bad Economics, Better Politics WSJ
Baltic states sever last power links to Russia FT
The Chiefs Don’t Want to be America’s Team. They’re Out to Conquer the Entire World. WSJ
Which Costs More: A Super Bowl Ticket or Your Mortgage? NYT
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -2
point(s) (-0.0%
) Overnight range: -22 to +2 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -0.72%
Topix -0.54% China SHCOMP +1.01% Hang Seng +1.16% Korea -0.58% Singapore +0.81% Australia -0.11% India -0.18% Taiwan +0.69% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.19%
Stoxx 600 -0.09% FTSE 100 -0.22% DAX +0.07% CAC 40 -0.12% Italy -0.33% IBEX -0.19% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.04%
to 107.73 EUR/USD -0.04% to 1.0379 GBP/USD +0.1% to 1.2448 USD/JPY +0.48% to 152.13 USD/CNY +0.05% to 7.2888 USD/CNH +0.06% to 7.293 USD/CHF +0.22% to 0.907 USD/CAD +0.11% to 1.4324 AUD/USD +0.03% to 0.6285 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +0.56%
to 97350.84 ETH +1.38% to 2747.12 XRP +1.84% to 2.3857 Cardano +2.49% to 0.7314 Solana +1.8% to 197.47 Avalanche +3.26% to 25.32 Dogecoin +2.05% to 0.254 Chainlink +2.74% to 19.27 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX -1.03%
to 15.34 WTI Crude +0.81% to 71.18 Brent Crude +0.81% to 74.89 Nat Gas -0.73% to 3.38 RBOB Gas +0.8% to 2.091 Heating Oil +0.95% to 2.421 Gold +0.34% to 2865.92 Silver +0.24% to 32.25 Copper +1.32% to 4.52 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.3bps
to 4.2907% 3M -2.2bps to 4.2968% 6M -1.5bps to 4.2905% 12M -0.4bps to 4.1684% 2Y +1.5bps to 4.2266% 5Y +0.2bps to 4.2761% 7Y -0.0bps to 4.3538% 10Y -0.4bps to 4.4303% 20Y -0.4bps to 4.6892% 30Y -0.4bps to 4.6329% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread widened 0.9bps to -10.4
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 1.9bps to 20.0 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.0bps to 20.1 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.36%
SPX Eq Wt -0.13% NASDAQ 100 +0.54% NASDAQ Comp +0.51% Russell Midcap +0.05% R2k -0.39% R1k Value +0.01% R1k Growth +0.6% R2k Value -0.04% R2k Growth -0.72% FANG+ +0.69% Semis +0.49% Software +0.26% Biotech -1.4% Regional Banks +1.16% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Cons Staples +0.88% Fin +0.84% Tech +0.66% Comm Srvcs +0.51% Cons Disc +0.45% Indu +0.42% SPX +0.36% Materials +0.34% REITs +0.3% Utes -0.06% Healthcare -0.94% Energy -1.64% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -0.3bp
to 302bp All Sectors ex-Energy +1.6bp to 288bp Cons Disc -1.2bp to 242bp Indu -0.6bp to 227bp Tech -0.0bp to 310bp Comm Srvcs +0.1bp to 496bp Materials -1.2bp to 277bp Energy +1.8bp to 285bp Fin Snr -0.7bp to 259bp Fin Sub +25.9bp to 211bp Cons Staples -1.8bp to 281bp Healthcare -2.6bp to 355bp Utes -2.2bp to 224bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/7 | 8:30AM | Jan AHE m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 2/7 | 8:30AM | Jan Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 2/7 | 8:30AM | Jan Non-farm Payrolls | 175.0 | 256.0 |
| 2/7 | 10AM | Feb P UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| 2/7 | 10AM | Feb P UMich Sentiment | 71.8 | 71.1 |
| 2/10 | 11AM | Jan NYFed 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 3.0 |
| 2/11 | 6AM | Jan Small Biz Optimisum | 104.7 | 105.1 |
| 2/12 | 8:30AM | Jan CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 2/12 | 8:30AM | Jan Core CPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 2/12 | 8:30AM | Jan CPI y/y | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 2/12 | 8:30AM | Jan Core CPI y/y | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| 2/13 | 8:30AM | Jan PPI m/m | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 2/13 | 8:30AM | Jan Core PPI m/m | 0.3 | 0.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
This week has been a positive test for equity markets. After a sizable plunge Monday (“drug tariff” reaction), equity markets are on track for a slight gain as of Thursday’s close.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX is now within 40 points of all-time highs made just three weeks ago.
- TSLA is still quite weak but arguably should make an attempt at bottoming in the weeks ahead.
- AMZN pullback likely spells opportunity given no serious damage.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
We explore a key emerging trend in crypto: the acceleration of token buybacks. We break down the factors driving this shift and its potential impact on the market.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Millions of Americans will be betting their pride and money on either the Philadelphia Eagles or Kansas City Chiefs this weekend.
Americans are expected to wager a record $1.39 billion through legal platforms on the big game, according to an American Gaming Association survey. The record signals that many are feeling optimistic about their finances and bullish on the economy because they have extra disposable income to gamble – or at least so one hopes.
If the survey considered unregulated, illegal, or informal avenues, the number would be even more staggering. In the past, when AGA has released forecasts, it didn’t just focus on legal approaches, so last year, bettors were estimated to spend $23.1 billion.
Sports betting has become more mainstream since it was legalized in nearly 40 states. This year, more than 4 in 10 game watchers say they will place bets related to the game, a LendingTree survey said. Some might even be betting on what song Kendrick Lamar will perform first at the halftime show.
About 41% of those who do bet, plan to bet $100 or more. And the survey’s results say that 40% of bettors will use a credit card to place at least one bet. The article doesn’t explain why bettors would be putting that sum on a credit card. Maybe they can’t afford it (which wouldn’t be good news for the economy), or maybe they figure that win or lose, you might as well get some credit card points out of it?
More than 60% of respondents said they will use DraftKings or FanDuel, up from 52% last year.
FanDuel plans to further solidify its position in the betting markets by airing an ad during Game Day, even if it wasn’t cheap. Ad prices reached a record this year, with a few spots selling for a record $8 million. Though it’s worth noting that last year three betting companies aired ads, whereas this year, it will be just one.
For now, Robinhood will be sitting this one out. On Tuesday, the brokerage said it was withdrawing its plans to offer betting contracts on the Super Bowl after receiving pushback from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.