A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“Never let the fear of striking out keep you from playing the game.” — Babe Ruth
Overnight
No Survivors Expected After Plane Carrying 64 Collides With Black Hawk Helicopter Near D.C. WSJ
Bill Gates Isn’t Like Those Other Tech Billionaires NYT
Fed Stands Pat on Rates, Entering New Wait-and-See Phase WSJ
Trump Lashes Out at a Favorite Nemesis: The Federal Reserve WSJ
Gold stockpiling in New York leads to London shortage FT
Tech results – as it happened: Microsoft shares slide after cloud growth disappoints; Zuckerberg promises ‘intense’ year for Meta FT
Tesla results disappoint but Musk touts coming robots and ‘cybercabs’ FT
DeepSeek’s AI claims have shaken the world — but not everyone’s convinced CNBC
SoftBank in Talks to Invest as Much as $25 Billion in OpenAI WSJ
FBI Overhaul Off to a Rocky Start as Kash Patel Prepares to Defend His Vision WSJ
A Fish Farm Offered 40,000 Pounds of Salmon for Free. There Was a Catch. NYT
Mona Lisa to be moved as part of major Louvre overhaul BBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +24
point(s) (+0.4%
) Overnight range: -6 to +34 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.25%
Topix +0.23% China SHCOMP flat Hang Seng flat Korea flat Singapore flat Australia +0.55% India +0.37% Taiwan flat |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.64%
Stoxx 600 +0.48% FTSE 100 +0.27% DAX +0.32% CAC 40 +0.43% Italy +0.11% IBEX +0.75% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.05%
to 107.95 EUR/USD -0.16% to 1.0404 GBP/USD -0.14% to 1.2434 USD/JPY -0.5% to 154.45 USD/CNY flat at 7.2446 USD/CNH +0.03% to 7.268 USD/CHF +0.1% to 0.9077 USD/CAD -0.06% to 1.441 AUD/USD -0.05% to 0.6228 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +1.52%
to 105323.78 ETH +2.32% to 3213.82 XRP +0.36% to 3.1029 Cardano +0.81% to 0.962 Solana +2.61% to 240.84 Avalanche +3.69% to 34.0 Dogecoin +0.67% to 0.332 Chainlink +1.79% to 24.51 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX -3.56%
to 15.97 WTI Crude -0.26% to 72.43 Brent Crude -0.25% to 76.39 Nat Gas -9.7% to 3.19 RBOB Gas -0.48% to 2.026 Heating Oil -0.58% to 2.44 Gold +0.66% to 2777.69 Silver +0.76% to 31.08 Copper +0.48% to 4.304 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.1bps
to 4.3167% 3M -1.1bps to 4.2776% 6M -1.1bps to 4.2814% 12M -3.8bps to 4.1181% 2Y -0.6bps to 4.2073% 5Y -1.9bps to 4.3131% 7Y -2.4bps to 4.4064% 10Y -2.6bps to 4.5022% 20Y -2.8bps to 4.8006% 30Y -2.8bps to 4.7418% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 2.1bps to -10.7
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 1.8bps to 29.3 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.1bps to 23.8 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.47%
SPX Eq Wt -0.33% NASDAQ 100 -0.24% NASDAQ Comp -0.51% Russell Midcap -0.36% R2k -0.25% R1k Value -0.18% R1k Growth -0.66% R2k Value -0.37% R2k Growth -0.15% FANG+ -0.99% Semis -0.38% Software -1.44% Biotech -0.64% Regional Banks -0.11% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Comm Srvcs +0.31% Cons Staples +0.26% Utes +0.19% Energy +0.18% Fin -0.03% Materials -0.2% Indu -0.38% SPX -0.47% Cons Disc -0.5% Healthcare -0.57% Tech -1.09% REITs -1.19% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -0.7bp
to 302bp All Sectors ex-Energy -1.1bp to 286bp Cons Disc -0.6bp to 244bp Indu +0.0bp to 227bp Tech +1.4bp to 313bp Comm Srvcs -1.7bp to 488bp Materials -4.6bp to 276bp Energy +0.1bp to 283bp Fin Snr -0.1bp to 261bp Fin Sub -1.9bp to 190bp Cons Staples -1.6bp to 261bp Healthcare -1.1bp to 374bp Utes -0.7bp to 224bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/30 | 8:30AM | 4Q A GDP QoQ | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | Dec PCE m/m | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE m/m | 0.2 | 0.11 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | Dec PCE y/y | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE y/y | 2.8 | 2.81774 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | 4Q ECI QoQ | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 2/3 | 9:45AM | Jan F S&P Manu PMI | n/a | 50.1 |
| 2/3 | 10AM | Jan ISM Manu PMI | 49.0 | 49.2 |
| 2/4 | 10AM | Dec JOLTS | n/a | 8098.0 |
| 2/4 | 10AM | Dec F Durable Gds Orders | n/a | -2.2 |
| 2/5 | 8:30AM | Dec Trade Balance | -80.4 | -78.193 |
| 2/5 | 9:45AM | Jan F S&P Srvcs PMI | n/a | 52.8 |
| 2/5 | 10AM | Jan ISM Srvcs PMI | 54.3 | 54.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
We are watching the Friday, Jan. 31, close for S&P 500, and the key is a positive close for the month. This is the January barometer “as January goes, so goes the year.”
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX remains choppy since last Friday and is in need of pattern resolution.
- MSFT, TSLA, and META are analyzed technically with support and resistance.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
We discuss our takeaways from the FOMC press conference and discuss the latest country to contemplate a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Click HERE for more.
First News
You may not notice it, but in the midst of tech stocks’ bad week, the rest of the market has been quietly rallying.
Tech titans’ outsize influence over the direction of the broader market means that much of the market’s underlying gains get concealed due to sharp losses posted by the index’s biggest players.
Of course, they can’t help that; they’re just that big. The top 10 companies make up a record part of the S&P 500 index.
Let’s recap some recent unusual market action.
- Just last Thursday, the S&P 500 hit fresh all-time highs. The next trading day, the index traded slightly below those levels. All seemingly normal market behaviour.
- On Monday, the DeepSeek-led artificial intelligence rout propelled the index to end the day down 1.5% despite roughly 350 stocks rising. That has never happened before, according to Fundstrat Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton.
- The strange trend continued Tuesday. The index managed to finish 0.9% higher even though about 350 of the index’s constituents were in the red. Tech stocks recovered some of the lost ground, driven by investors buying the dip and reassessing their outlook on the threats to U.S. chips dominance posed by DeepSeek.
While it may seem like a concerning signal that tech continues to hold such a large sway over the broader market, it’s a good sign that more stocks have been participating in the market’s movements lately.
Investors typically like to see a higher number of stocks participating in the rally or decline because it can help reaffirm the direction.
There’s much debate about whether the market’s broadening can be sustained. Earnings growth, which many consider to be the true driver of returns, doesn’t look as attractive for the 493 stocks outside of the Magnificent Seven in the S&P 500.
For the fourth quarter, analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Magnificent Seven companies to post a 22% jump in profit. In comparison, they expect a 10% rise from other 493 companies.
That’s a little disappointing for those who had been hoping earlier last year that the Magnificent Seven would lose their lead over the other 493 stocks.
The world sure seems to revolve around tech.
