A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.” – Peter Drucker
Over the weekend
Silicon Valley Is Raving About a Made-in-China AI Model WSJ
How Chinese A.I. Start-Up DeepSeek Is Competing With Silicon Valley Giants NYT
Wall Street tech stocks head for $1tn sell-off as China’s DeepSeek rattles AI investors FT
Trump tariffs could raise prices on technology like laptops, smartphones and AI CNBC
Tulsi Gabbard’s Unorthodox Path to Trump’s Intelligence Team NYT
Investors offloaded record volume of private equity stakes in 2024 FT
Big changes at Starbucks roll out Monday CNN
US pauses tariffs on Colombia after deal on deportations FT
Return-to-Office Mandates Apply to Everyone, Except a Chosen Few WSJ
Five Takeaways From Bill Gates’s Interview With The Wall Street Journal WSJ
Inside the race for Greenland’s mineral wealth BBC
After the wildfires: What a long rebuilding process will look like for Los Angeles homeowners CNBC
Dubai’s ceaseless boom is putting strains on its residents AP
People are hawking TikTok-loaded phones for thousands on eBay, Facebook AP
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -146
point(s) (-2.4%
) Overnight range: -150 to -28 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -0.92%
Topix +0.26% China SHCOMP -0.06% Hang Seng +0.66% Korea flat Singapore -0.2% Australia flat India -1.14% Taiwan flat |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -1.54%
Stoxx 600 -0.66% FTSE 100 -0.22% DAX -1.35% CAC 40 -0.85% Italy -0.41% IBEX -0.17% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.19%
to 107.24 EUR/USD +0.1% to 1.0507 GBP/USD +0.14% to 1.2501 USD/JPY -1.33% to 153.92 USD/CNY +0.21% to 7.2561 USD/CNH +0.09% to 7.2511 USD/CHF -0.78% to 0.8988 USD/CAD +0.06% to 1.4349 AUD/USD -0.19% to 0.6302 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -5.49%
to 98830.07 ETH -7.55% to 3048.2 XRP -10.71% to 2.7668 Cardano -10.88% to 0.8746 Solana -10.71% to 222.53 Avalanche -7.32% to 33.11 Dogecoin -10.51% to 0.31 Chainlink -13.27% to 22.32 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +35.35%
to 20.1 WTI Crude +0.43% to 74.98 Brent Crude +0.45% to 78.85 Nat Gas -6.51% to 3.77 RBOB Gas +0.56% to 2.061 Heating Oil -1.73% to 2.473 Gold -0.08% to 2768.26 Silver -0.35% to 30.48 Copper -0.97% to 4.279 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -0.8bps
to 4.3106% 3M -2.1bps to 4.2834% 6M -3.2bps to 4.2477% 12M -7.0bps to 4.0868% 2Y -7.9bps to 4.1865% 5Y -11.0bps to 4.3156% 7Y -11.6bps to 4.4096% 10Y -10.7bps to 4.5141% 20Y -9.5bps to 4.8181% 30Y -8.7bps to 4.758% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 8.1bps to -12.8
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 2.6bps to 32.3 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 2.0bps to 24.2 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.29%
SPX Eq Wt -0.09% NASDAQ 100 -0.58% NASDAQ Comp -0.5% Russell Midcap -0.05% R2k -0.3% R1k Value -0.08% R1k Growth -0.4% R2k Value +0.12% R2k Growth -0.68% FANG+ -0.21% Semis -1.99% Software -0.42% Biotech -0.56% Regional Banks +0.75% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Comm Srvcs +1.09% Utes +1.06% Cons Staples +0.36% REITs +0.31% Fin +0.22% Healthcare +0.14% Materials -0.23% SPX -0.29% Indu -0.42% Cons Disc -0.54% Energy -0.98% Tech -1.09% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -2.5bp
to 294bp All Sectors ex-Energy -1.7bp to 279bp Cons Disc -6.1bp to 235bp Indu -1.9bp to 220bp Tech -1.1bp to 301bp Comm Srvcs -0.6bp to 476bp Materials -1.5bp to 269bp Energy -1.8bp to 274bp Fin Snr -1.9bp to 258bp Fin Sub -0.4bp to 190bp Cons Staples -1.2bp to 261bp Healthcare +0.5bp to 368bp Utes -2.6bp to 212bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/27 | 10AM | Dec New Home Sales | 672.0 | 664.0 |
| 1/27 | 10AM | Dec New Home Sales m/m | 2.4 | 5.9 |
| 1/28 | 8:30AM | Dec P Durable Gds Orders | 0.5 | -1.2 |
| 1/28 | 10AM | Jan Conf Board Sentiment | 105.6 | 104.7 |
| 1/29 | 2PM | Jan 29 FOMC Decision | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| 1/30 | 8:30AM | 4Q A GDP QoQ | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | Dec PCE m/m | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE m/m | 0.2 | 0.11 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | Dec PCE y/y | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | Dec Core PCE y/y | 2.8 | 2.81774 |
| 1/31 | 8:30AM | 4Q ECI QoQ | 0.9 | 0.8 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
This is the final week of January and so far so good for 2025 with S&P 500 up 3.5% year-to-date. This is an important week for equity markets with several important events. Overall, we are constructive on markets near term and expect positive catalysts to support stocks this week.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX’s breakout is technically bullish, but short-term patterns indicate possible consolidation.
- U.S. dollar decline proved to be the biggest technical development since the Inauguration.
- Emerging markets likely are bottoming and should rally as the dollar decline continues.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
We cover the reversal of SAB 121, the White House’s comprehensive executive order, the probability of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and what the recent muted price action signals for the market in the near term.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Most of the world’s movers and shakers are back home after a week spent in Davos, Switzerland. The World Economic Forum’s annual conference remains a highly watched event, with Semafor even publishing a fluff piece about outerwear styles of the world’s global elite (the tl;dr: Semafor’s fashion consultant does not like the shift away from wool topcoats toward ski parkas, and he would presumably like those darn kids to get off his lawn.)
But there are slight hints that Davos is no longer quite as important a gathering as it once was. Consider that the only G7 head of state in attendance this year was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. China’s and India’s respective heads of state didn’t attend either.
Or consider that while Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was mingling with peers in the global elite and perhaps enjoying some fondue in Switzerland, the biggest tech news of the week was the announcement of the Stargate Project between OpenAI, Oracle, Softbank and MGZ (the four have pledged to invest up to $500 billion to build out AI infrastructure, including data centers). Though Microsoft will be part of the project, it was OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Oracle’s Larry Ellison, and Softbank’s Masayoshi Son getting their photos taken with President Trump at the White House.
Perhaps the most telling hint of declining influence of Davos was the amount of attention paid to someone who wasn’t even there in person: President Donald Trump. Davos’s opening day coincided with Inauguration Day, and meeting attendees flocked to watch parties to observe. That is perhaps not surprising – a new U.S. President would be big news no matter who is moving into the White House.
And it would be just as unsurprising to note that the Zoom broadcast of Trump’s Davos keynote address on Thursday was just as well attended – perhaps any U.S. President’s remarks would have garnered outsized attention. Nevertheless, as Trump spoke of his intention to demand lower interest rates and to impose tariffs on virtually anything not made in the U.S., the executives and statesmen gathered in Davos’ Congress Center in such numbers that a second venue had to be set up to hold everyone.
Regardless of the themes that the WEF had designated for this year’s meeting, Trump was clearly the main topic of conversation, as attendees traded perspectives about what they are expecting from the 47th President based on their experience with the 45th President. And that leads to one undeniable truth: No matter how one feels about Trump and his policies, he is every bit as influential and politically powerful as he thinks he is. And if this is the case, how much does Davos’ gathering really still matter?
