A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“Every good idea sooner or later degenerates into hard work.” — Calvin Trillin
Over the Weekend
Delay to TikTok ban gets Trump sign-off BBC
A rundown of Trump’s executive actions from Day One, from tariffs to immigration BBG
Biden issues pre-emptive pardons to guard against potential Trump retaliation SEM
Musk responds to backlash over gesture at Trump rally BBC
Hamas is effectively back in control in Gaza WSJ
Donald Trump threatens 25% tariff within days for Mexico and Canada FT
India’s economy slows down just when it was supposed to speed up NYT
Schwab stock jumps on earnings beat as brokerage rakes in $115 billion in new assets BAR
Costco union representing 18,000 workers authorizes nationwide strike CNBC
Melania Trump launches her own cryptocurrency BBC
Fire tears through Turkey ski resort hotel, killing at least 66 people and injuring dozens more CBS
Paris Olympics medals are tarnishing, putting LVMH in the spotlight NYT
Cattle gallstones, worth twice as much as gold, drive a global smuggling frenzy WSJ
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +25
point(s) (+0.4%
) overnight range: -39 to +45 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.32%
Topix +0.08% China SHCOMP -0.05% Hang Seng +0.91% Korea -0.08% Singapore -0.33% Australia +0.66% India -1.37% Taiwan +0.14% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.09%
Stoxx 600 +0.10% FTSE 100 +0.01% DAX -0.06% CAC 40 +0.15% Italy -0.51% IBEX -0.53% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.63%
to 108.65 EUR/USD -0.63% to 1.0350 GBP/USD -0.69% to 1.2243 USD/JPY -0.15% to 155.86 USD/CNY -0.17% to 7.2853 USD/CNH -0.34% to 7.2879 USD/CHF -0.44% to 0.9107 USD/CAD -0.94% to 1.4446 AUD/USD -0.84% to 0.6222 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed -1.8bps
to -4.0bps
10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed -2.9bps to 31.1bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed -0.1bps to 22.7bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +1.00%
SPX Eq Wt +0.49% NASDAQ 100 +1.66% NASDAQ Comp +1.51% Russell Midcap +0.52% R2k +0.40% R1k Value +0.66% R1k Growth +1.24% R2k Value +0.37% R2k Growth +0.43% FANG+ +1.41% Semis +2.36% Software +0.98% Biotech +0.09% Regional Banks +1.50% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Healthcare -0.67% REITs -0.04% Utes +0.10% Indu +0.56% Materials +0.70% Energy +0.79% Fin +0.83% Cons Staples +0.85% SPX +1.00% Comm Srvcs +1.10% Tech +1.65% Cons Disc +1.71% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -11.0bps
to 297bps All Sectors ex-Energy -10.1bps 281bps Cons Disc -14.7bps 239bps Indu -10.3bps 224bps Tech -10.5bps 305bps Comm Srvcs -9.8bps 485bps Materials -9.3bps 272bps Energy -7.7bps 274bps Fin Snr -9.5bps 261bps Fin Sub -3.8bps 193bps Cons Staples -11.0bps 256bps Healthcare -10.8bps 368bps Utes -13.9bps 212bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/24 | 9:45 AM | Jan P S&P Manu PMI | 49.9 | 49.4 |
| 1/24 | 9:45 AM | Jan P S&P Srvcs PMI | 56.5 | 56.8 |
| 1/24 | 10:00 AM | Jan F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 3.3 |
| 1/24 | 10:00 AM | Jan F UMich Sentiment | 73.2 | 73.2 |
| 1/24 | 10:00 AM | Dec Existing Home Sales | 4.2 | 4.15 |
| 1/24 | 10:00 AM | Dec Existing Home Sales m/m | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| 1/27 | 10:00 AM | Dec New Home Sales | 670 | 664 |
| 1/27 | 10:00 AM | Dec New Home Sales m/m | 7.5 | 5.9 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
Last week we saw December Core CPI of +0.22%, the best reading since July 2024 (+0.17%). But the reason we are encouraged is that we see this as repeatable and setting up favorably compared to a year ago.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX push higher in five-waves from 1/13 suggests the start of a move to new highs.
- Semiconductor stocks have begun to strengthen and arguably should begin to lead Technology.
- Equal-weighted SPX should only temporarily outperform SPY, I believe, and SPY is preferred.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
To us, key metrics such as the Coinbase premium, implied volatility, and spot volumes all signal a growing bullish outlook for BTC.
Click HERE for more.
First News
One of the last acts of the Biden administration, on Friday, was to announce the next 15 drugs that would be subject to Medicare price negotiation, part of the government’s attempt to trim U.S. healthcare costs. Assuming that the new Trump administration doesn’t end or reverse this initiative (part of President Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act), the result could mean that millions of Americans will see lower prices on two medications that have recently become extremely popular: the diabetes treatment Ozempic and its weight-loss analog, Wegovy.
If negotiations are successful in driving down the cost of Ozempic and Wegovy for a broad swath of Americans, millions more could start using them. This could lead to some unexpected results.
While the weight-loss effects of these treatments are well known, scientists are still looking into other potential uses for this medication. One such potential indication that scientists are investigating is using such GLP-1 medications to treat alcoholism, or alcohol addiction. This possibility arose after many patients using such treatments reported they had lost their taste for alcohol, with some reporting that when on Ozempic,/Wegovy they would get dizzy after just one drink. So pronounced is this effect that the owner of one just-shuttered wine bar in Dallas partially attributed the failure of her business to Ozempic.
Wider usage of Ozempic and Wegovy could also have an unexpected effect on the government’s attempt to reduce Medicare spending, because it could actually increase patients’ usage of healthcare. The desire for the purported miracle drug that can help weight-loss efforts could drive more people to doctors in search of a prescription, and one recent study suggests this in turn is likely to result in them getting diagnosed for other conditions (and getting prescriptions for even more medications.)
And that, pun not entirely unintended, is food for thought.
