A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“The most perfect technique is that which is not noticed at all.” — Pablo Casals
Over the Weekend
Biden authorizes Ukraine to use long-range US weapons in Russia CNN
Spirit Air files for bankruptcy following failed JetBlue tie-up BBG
Organic carrots recalled in US after deadly E. coli outbreak BBC
Trump expands search for Treasury secretary FT
Trading assets at US banks cross $1tn for first time since financial crisis FT
Netflix said a record 60 million households worldwide tuned in for Jake Paul versus Mike Tyson fight CNBC
Bullet strikes Southwest Airlines plane without injuries at Dallas airport AP
KKR and Bain’s $4bn takeover battle set to open up M&A in Japan FT
Boeing issues layoff notices to 400-plus workers as it begins drastic cuts AP
Singapore oil trader sentenced to 17 years for ‘cheating’ HSBC over $112mn FT
Netanyahu aide investigated over 7 October document changes BBC
Trump win boosts Ukrainian bonds SEM
Weary Philippines cleans up after Super Typhoon Man-yi becomes fourth major storm to hit in the past fortnight CNN
Watch given to Titanic hero sells for £1.5m BBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +4
point(s) (+0.1%
) Overnight range: -5 to +19 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -1.09%
Topix -0.73% China SHCOMP -0.21% Hang Seng +0.77% Korea +2.16% Singapore -0.32% Australia +0.18% India -0.34% Taiwan -0.86% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.34%
Stoxx 600 -0.19% FTSE 100 +0.25% DAX -0.14% CAC 40 -0.03% Italy -1.28% IBEX +0.04% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.0%
to 106.68 EUR/USD +0.08% to 1.0548 GBP/USD +0.02% to 1.262 USD/JPY +0.42% to 154.95 USD/CNY +0.2% to 7.2442 USD/CNH +0.16% to 7.2483 USD/CHF -0.05% to 0.8872 USD/CAD flat at 1.409 AUD/USD -0.08% to 0.6457 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +3.05%
to 91865.34 ETH +1.88% to 3120.06 XRP +8.33% to 1.1407 Cardano +7.73% to 0.7581 Solana +4.45% to 248.1 Avalanche +2.71% to 35.66 Dogecoin +4.72% to 0.3724 Chainlink +6.84% to 14.58 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +3.47%
to 16.7 WTI Crude +0.54% to 67.38 Brent Crude +0.66% to 71.51 Nat Gas +2.27% to 2.89 RBOB Gas +0.76% to 1.964 Heating Oil +1.05% to 2.194 Gold +1.16% to 2592.94 Silver +1.56% to 30.74 Copper +0.48% to 4.084 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.1bps
to 4.5479% 3M -1.1bps to 4.48% 6M +0.2bps to 4.4618% 12M -1.6bps to 4.3026% 2Y -0.2bps to 4.3013% 5Y +0.4bps to 4.3104% 7Y +0.8bps to 4.3853% 10Y +1.8bps to 4.4572% 20Y +2.7bps to 4.7485% 30Y +3.1bps to 4.6476% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 0.4bps to -21.2
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 2.0bps to 15.2 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 1.3bps to 18.8 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -1.32%
SPX Eq Wt -0.71% NASDAQ 100 -2.4% NASDAQ Comp -2.24% Russell Midcap -0.7% R2k -1.42% R1k Value -0.41% R1k Growth -2.11% R2k Value -0.94% R2k Growth -1.88% FANG+ -2.71% Semis -3.32% Software -1.86% Biotech -5.29% Regional Banks +0.02% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Utes +1.47% Fin +0.53% REITs +0.16% Energy -0.34% Indu -0.6% Materials -0.79% Cons Staples -0.83% SPX -1.32% Cons Disc -1.36% Comm Srvcs -1.85% Healthcare -1.88% Tech -2.49% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +9.9bp
to 315bp All Sectors ex-Energy +10.5bp to 297bp Cons Disc +6.6bp to 257bp Indu +13.5bp to 244bp Tech +13.7bp to 324bp Comm Srvcs +10.3bp to 516bp Materials +9.7bp to 295bp Energy +9.7bp to 300bp Fin Snr +9.4bp to 277bp Fin Sub +5.4bp to 194bp Cons Staples +10.4bp to 297bp Healthcare +13.0bp to 348bp Utes +12.6bp to 217bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18 | 10AM | Nov Homebuilder Sentiment | 42.0 | 43.0 |
| 11/18 | 4PM | Sep Net TIC Flows | n/a | 79.157 |
| 11/21 | 10AM | Oct Existing Home Sales | 3.94 | 3.84 |
| 11/21 | 10AM | Oct Existing Home Sales m/m | 2.47 | -1.03 |
| 11/22 | 9:45AM | Nov P S&P Manu PMI | 48.8 | 48.5 |
| 11/22 | 9:45AM | Nov P S&P Srvcs PMI | 55.3 | 55.0 |
| 11/22 | 10AM | Nov F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 2.6 |
| 11/22 | 10AM | Nov F UMich Sentiment | 73.5 | 73.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
We believe probabilities favor a rally into Thanksgiving, reversing the “slow bleed” lower seen in the past week. There are multiple factors, but the primary driver, in our view, is the clearing of several uncertainties that have acted as overhang.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- QQQ has pulled back to levels that mark support of a trendline extending from August.
- TSLA looks close to bottoming and should turn back higher towards monthly highs.
- Copper lies near make-or-break territory and difficult to say that rebounds are imminent.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
Despite CORE’s modest performance relative to BTC in the recent rally, the emergence of a MicroStrategy-like buyer and growing adoption as a BTC scaling solution support maintaining a small position of CORE within one’s portfolio.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Since the days of the Monroe Doctrine, the U.S. has taken a somewhat proprietary view of any and all countries in the Western hemisphere, including Latin America. To be sure, foreign powers have often ignored the doctrine. In the 1800s, Napoleon staked a claim to Mexico, and Britain established territories in Central America. The mid 20th century saw the Soviet Union provoking what we now know as the Cuban Missile Crisis.
China is testing that doctrine again, and it seems to be doing better than its imperial- and Cold War-era predecessors. Last week, China’s Belt and Road initiative marked a signature accomplishment – the opening of a massive port about 44 miles north of Lima, Peru. The Chancay megaport is arguably the largest deepwater port in South America.
China’s interest in Chancay isn’t just due to trade with Peru – the amount of cargo the port can handle vastly exceeds China’s trade with Peru ($23.16 billion in exports and roughly $12.11 billion in imports). The port is also expected to greatly facilitate China’s trade with South America, allowing cargo to bypass the Long Beach port in Los Angeles. Since 2020, the Middle Kingdom has been the largest trading partner to Central and South America. From there, China imports copper, lithium, iron ore, and petroleum, not to mention agricultural products like soybeans, which for China have increasingly come from Uruguay, Brazil, and Argentina ever since a 2018 U.S.-initiated trade war. In return, China exports large quantities of machinery, textiles, and consumer goods to the region. With this port, and reports that it will help to build rail links from Chancay to Brazil, China is improving its ability to handle another anticipated trade war with the U.S. The port also has security and military implications for the U.S.: some suggest the port is capable of docking Chinese naval vessels, and could also serve as a surveillance point from where it can monitor U.S naval activity.
Small wonder, then, that Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Peru for Thursday’s Chancay inauguration, after which he attended the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. He will then make a state visit to Brazil, while attending the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro.
Yet while some countries in South America are wary – if not downright suspicious of – the U.S., there are still fans of U.S. influence. Perhaps the most notable – at least for the incoming Trump administration – is Argentina, which last year elected a big, vocal fan of President Trump in Javier Milei. Though Trump is not due to be inaugurated for another two months, Milei has already visited him at Mar-a-Lago.
