A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“Common sense is the most widely shared commodity in the world, for every man is convinced that he is well supplied with it.” ― Rene Descartes
Over the Weekend
Chaos and political drama rock Japan’s snap election BBC
Oil prices plunge 6% after Israel’s attack spares Iran’s energy facilities CNBC
Boeing launches offering to raise roughly $19 billion to shore up finances RT
Hacked info from Italian government security databases sold to rich clients: Milan prosecutors POL
Iran mulls retaliation following Israel’s Saturday strikes SEM
Economists warn of new inflation hazards after election WSJ
Shanghai cracks down on Halloween costumes FT
China schedules meeting expected to reveal fiscal stimulus details CNBC
São Paulo loss caps dismal local elections for Brazil’s Lula FT
Delta sues CrowdStrike after widespread IT outage that caused thousands of cancellations CNBC
Volkswagen plans to close at least 3 German plants and cut thousands of jobs FT
Boeing is looking for an escape hatch from the space business QZ
Olympus chief executive forced to quit over alleged illegal drug purchase FT
Robinhood rolls out Presidential election betting WSJ
Banks and regulators warn of rise in ‘quishing’ QR code scams FT
Researchers say OpenAI-powered transcription tool invents things no one ever said AP
Musk’s X to undershoot revenue goals from political advertising FT
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +30
point(s) (+0.5%
) overnight range: +11 to +39 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +1.82%
Topix +1.51% China SHCOMP +0.68% Hang Seng +0.04% Korea +1.13% Singapore -0.26% Australia +0.12% India +0.65% Taiwan -0.64% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.07%
Stoxx 600 -0.19% FTSE 100 -0.27% DAX -0.24% CAC 40 +0.10% Italy -0.12% IBEX +0.24% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.07%
to 104.18 EUR/USD +0.19% to 1.0817 GBP/USD +0.12% to 1.2977 USD/JPY -0.26% to 152.71 USD/CNY -0.08% to 7.1273 USD/CNH -0.07% to 7.1392 USD/CHF +0.05% to 0.8664 USD/CAD flat at 1.3892 AUD/USD -0.03% to 0.6606 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread widened 0.8bps to -53.8bps
10Y-2 Y Spread widened 1.1bps to 14.2bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.4bps to 26.1bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.03%
SPX Eq Wt -0.47% NASDAQ 100 +0.59% NASDAQ Comp +0.56% Russell Midcap -0.43% R2k -0.49% R1k Value -0.68% R1k Growth +0.48% R2k Value -0.73% R2k Growth -0.26% FANG+ +0.42% Semis +1.16% Software +0.45% Biotech -0.10% Regional Banks -1.80% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Utes -1.46% Fin -1.05% Cons Staples -0.76% REITs -0.76% Materials -0.64% Healthcare -0.53% Indu -0.25% SPX -0.03% Energy +0.06% Cons Disc +0.49% Tech +0.59% Comm Srvcs +0.71% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -1.9bps
to 336bps All Sectors ex-Energy -1.6bps 314bps Cons Disc -3.9bps 292bps Indu -0.6bps 252bps Tech -3.2bps 325bps Comm Srvcs -0.3bps 541bps Materials +0.1bps 312bps Energy -2.8bps 318bps Fin Snr -3.5bps 294bps Fin Sub -1.0bps 204bps Cons Staples -1.6bps 319bps Healthcare +0.7bps 376bps Utes -1.2bps 219bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/29 | 9:00 AM | Aug Case Shiller 20-City m/m | 0.2 | 0.27 |
| 10/29 | 10:00 AM | Oct Conf Board Sentiment | 99.3 | 98.7 |
| 10/29 | 10:00 AM | Sep JOLTS | 7935 | 8040 |
| 10/30 | 8:30 AM | 3Q A GDP QoQ | 3 | 3 |
| 10/31 | 8:30 AM | Sep PCE m/m | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 10/31 | 8:30 AM | Sep Core PCE m/m | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| 10/31 | 8:30 AM | Sep PCE y/y | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| 10/31 | 8:30 AM | Sep Core PCE y/y | 2.6 | 2.67847 |
| 10/31 | 8:30 AM | 3Q ECI QoQ | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 11/1 | 8:30 AM | Oct AHE m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 11/1 | 8:30 AM | Oct Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| 11/1 | 8:30 AM | Oct Non-farm Payrolls | 110 | 254 |
| 11/1 | 9:45 AM | Oct F S&P Manu PMI | 47.8 | 47.8 |
| 11/1 | 10:00 AM | Oct ISM Manu PMI | 47.6 | 47.2 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
It has been a solid earnings season so far, with large Tech names slated to report this week. As we noted previously, the key is “real revenue” growth (post inflation) is accelerating to 2%, meaning that the quality of growth is rising.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX, QQQ look vulnerable through November and 5900-5935 looks important.
- QQQ breakout should help this reach targets near 503-505 into end of month.
- Technology has achieved a minor breakout which should help aid near-term strength.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
- SOL DEX volumes remain strong, and given SOL’s relative strength and its rising on-chain activity, we believe it’s prudent to seek SOL beta exposure via projects benefiting from this speculative frenzy.
- Meanwhile, our thesis on MKR has not played out as expected, largely due to weak acceptance of its rebrand to SKY and ETH’s underperformance.
Click HERE for more.
First News
The National Retail Federation projects that Americans will spend about $3.5 billion on candy for this Halloween season, down slightly from $3.6 billion last year. Though spending on candy is projected to remain the same, trick or treaters this year might find the makeup of the sweets featuring less chocolate and more gummies and hard candies.
That’s partly due to economics: In West Africa, where 60-70% of the world’s cacao is cultivated, several years of alternating heavy rains and droughts, coupled with disease outbreaks, have decimated crops, causing cacao bean prices to more than double on global commodities markets this year. The price of sugar has also risen sharply since May.
Evolving generational preferences are also behind the shift. Industry analysts report that younger Millennial and Gen Z consumers are increasingly reaching for treats that are fruitier and more tart.
A new development in chocolate technology could help chocolatiers address both these factors. Traditional chocolate is made from the cacao bean – the seed of the cacao plant. The bean is fermented, dried, roasted, shelled, ground, and then combined with ingredients like sugar, vanilla, and perhaps milk products. The rest of the fruit is generally discarded.
Yet a few companies, along with several scientists. have been experimenting with a “wholefruit” chocolate that makes use of the pulp of the fruit itself. When the pulp is juiced, it yields a liquid that those who have tasted it describe as fruity and tart, reminiscent of (depending on who you ask) pineapple, peach, lychee, pear, and/or lime. When reduced by boiling and combined with the inside of the fruit’s husk, it can become a syrupy sweetener that can replace some or even all of the sugar in the recipe. This can lower materials costs and produce a chocolate that unsurprisingly has a fruitier flavor (though still unmistakably chocolate.) As an added (potential) bonus, proponents claim that such wholefruit chocolate is also healthier, with less saturated fat and fewer calories than traditional varieties. (MG, WP, CNBC, BBC, BAR)
