A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“Time goes on. So whatever you’re going to do, do it. Do it now. Don’t wait.” ~ Robert De Niro
Overnight
Turkey carries out strikes in northern Iraq and Syria after ‘terrorist attack’ FT
Boeing workers reject latest contract offer, strike continues BAR
Russia amplified hurricane disinformation to drive Americans apart, researchers find AP
Bank of Canada resorts to jumbo rate cut as growth falters FT
Home sales on track for worst year since 1995 WSJ
Nigeria drops charges against Binance cryptocurrency boss BBC
Weight-loss drugs didn’t curb health costs within two years RT
Tesla delivers blowout quarterly results BBG
Apple and Goldman Sachs must pay nearly $90 million in credit-card inquiry NYT
Applications to MBA programs soar WSJ
Data shows disconnect between Americans’ perceived financial strain and reality AX
Goldfish Crackers temporarily rebranding as Chilean Sea Bass FW
Shohei Ohtani 50-50 home run ball auctions at record-shattering $4.4 million after last-minute flurry of bids YF
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +24
point(s) (+0.4%
) Overnight range: +1 to +29 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.1%
Topix -0.05% China SHCOMP -0.68% Hang Seng -1.3% Korea -0.72% Singapore +0.12% Australia -0.12% India -0.12% Taiwan -0.61% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.79%
Stoxx 600 +0.62% FTSE 100 +0.78% DAX +0.65% CAC 40 +0.79% Italy +0.7% IBEX +0.28% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.27%
to 104.15 EUR/USD +0.14% to 1.0797 GBP/USD +0.32% to 1.2962 USD/JPY -0.56% to 151.9 USD/CNY -0.2% to 7.1161 USD/CNH -0.18% to 7.1232 USD/CHF -0.1% to 0.8655 USD/CAD -0.13% to 1.3818 AUD/USD +0.33% to 0.6656 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +0.27%
to 66766.73 ETH +0.12% to 2515.51 XRP +0.78% to 0.5278 Cardano -3.1% to 0.3404 Solana +0.15% to 170.9 Avalanche -1.31% to 26.37 Dogecoin -1.72% to 0.1372 Chainlink -0.24% to 11.24 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX -2.55%
to 18.75 WTI Crude +2.06% to 72.23 Brent Crude +1.96% to 76.43 Nat Gas +1.92% to 2.39 RBOB Gas +1.52% to 2.072 Heating Oil +1.57% to 2.256 Gold +0.77% to 2736.36 Silver +1.65% to 34.26 Copper +0.97% to 4.378 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -1.6bps
to 4.7171% 3M -1.6bps to 4.6141% 6M -1.9bps to 4.4693% 12M -2.4bps to 4.2477% 2Y -3.3bps to 4.0445% 5Y -5.3bps to 4.0033% 7Y -5.6bps to 4.0922% 10Y -5.4bps to 4.1918% 20Y -5.3bps to 4.5426% 30Y -5.3bps to 4.4651% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 3.5bps to -60.3
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 1.8bps to 14.5 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.3bps to 27.3 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.92%
SPX Eq Wt -0.33% NASDAQ 100 -1.55% NASDAQ Comp -1.6% Russell Midcap -0.37% R2k -0.79% R1k Value -0.18% R1k Growth -1.54% R2k Value -0.55% R2k Growth -1.03% FANG+ -2.26% Semis -1.06% Software -1.43% Biotech -1.63% Regional Banks +0.07% SPX GICS1 Sorted: REITs +1.02% Utes +1.01% Cons Staples -0.12% Fin -0.12% Indu -0.3% Materials -0.35% Healthcare -0.46% Energy -0.48% SPX -0.92% Comm Srvcs -1.36% Tech -1.68% Cons Disc -1.82% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +1.4bp
to 339bp All Sectors ex-Energy +1.2bp to 315bp Cons Disc +1.4bp to 296bp Indu +5.4bp to 254bp Tech -2.5bp to 330bp Comm Srvcs +1.2bp to 539bp Materials +2.4bp to 319bp Energy +1.0bp to 326bp Fin Snr +2.3bp to 299bp Fin Sub -1.5bp to 203bp Cons Staples +4.6bp to 320bp Healthcare +1.4bp to 371bp Utes -2.3bp to 220bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/24 | 9:45AM | Oct P S&P Manu PMI | 47.5 | 47.3 |
| 10/24 | 9:45AM | Oct P S&P Srvcs PMI | 55.0 | 55.2 |
| 10/24 | 10AM | Sep New Home Sales | 720.0 | 716.0 |
| 10/24 | 10AM | Sep New Home Sales m/m | 0.6 | -4.7 |
| 10/25 | 8:30AM | Sep P Durable Gds Orders | -1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10/25 | 10AM | Oct F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 10/25 | 10AM | Oct F UMich Sentiment | 69.1 | 68.9 |
| 10/29 | 10AM | Oct Conf Board Sentiment | 99.0 | 98.7 |
| 10/29 | 10AM | Sep JOLTS | n/a | 8040.0 |
| 10/30 | 8:30AM | 3Q A GDP QoQ | 3.0 | 3.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
2024 has proven the S&P 500 to be very strong, and the the Fed remains dovish. Thus, we expect dip buyers to emerge if we get any pullback. 3Q24 EPS season is supportive of fundamentals.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- SPX, QQQ look vulnerable through November and 5900-5935 looks important.
- Utilities look to show further outperformance into late 2024 before peaking.
- Treasuries look close to bottoming and TLT should find strong support near 91.25.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
- Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge is a major development for stablecoins and crypto rails.
- Solana’s breakout against Bitcoin and Ethereum resembles moves seen in 2024Q1 and 2023Q4.
- We continue to think that HPC miners will have their moment in the sun.
Click HERE for more.
First News
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has moved the Jetsons-esque dream of flying personal transportation one step closer to reality, finalizing the training and rules required to certify pilots who will fly air taxis and other so-called “powered lift” civilian aircraft. The rule also covers operational requirements such as minimum altitudes and visibility parameters.
The rule helps to clear the path for small (defined by the FAA as vehicles under 7,000 pounds and less than 50 feet in length and width) electric vehicles with vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) capabilities, though the FAA is far from the only regulator likely to claim authority. Various state and local authorities will almost certainly have concerns and seek to establish their own authority on the operation of air taxis in their respective jurisdictions, including the establishment of air routes and the implementation of necessary infrastructure. Law enforcement and first-responder agencies at all levels will also undoubtedly wish to weigh in on various operational risks related to weather, cybersecurity, crime/terrorism, and other potential dangers.
Logistical issues also remain. A McKinsey study estimates that ultimately, larger cities like New York would need 85 to 100 landing pads or 20 to 30 vertiports. Air routes will need to be established and integrated with urban planning efforts, and officials will want assurances that power grids can accommodate the fast-charging requirements of such vehicles. Initial operations will almost certainly begin with far fewer routes and thus, far fewer infrastructure requirements.
That’s for the best, given how soon eVTOL aircraft companies like Archer Aviation (ACHR) and Joby Aviation (JOBY) plan to begin offering services to the public. Archer plans to initiate services in Los Angeles in time for the city’s hosting of World Cup soccer games in 2026, shuttling passengers between LAX and various key locations in greater Los Angeles at a cost that it describes as similar to ground-based options such as Uber and Lyft. The company’s Los Angeles announcement follows earlier announced plans for service in greater New York (between Newark Airport and downtown Manhattan), in San Francisco (linking SF to four other cities in the Bay Area) and in Chicago (between O’Hare and Chicago’s Near West Side). Joby, meanwhile, has plans to begin services between JFK and LaGuardia into midtown Manhattan sometime next year, and in Los Angeles in time for the 2028 Olympics.
Although a number of other companies are also seeking to be part of this new business, Joby and Archer each have investors who know something about transportation and aviation. Joby’s investors include Toyota, Uber, and Delta Airlines, while Boeing, United Airlines, and Stellantis are major stakeholders in Archer Aviation. If all works according to their respective plans, passengers could get from JFK to midtown Manhattan in seven minutes, from O’Hare to the heart of Chicago in 10 minutes, and from LAX to landing pads in Orange County, Santa Monica, Hollywood Burbank, Long Beach, and Van Nuys in 10-20 minutes.
Of course, this is about more than helping travelers bypass traffic to and from the airport. The World Economic Forum also sees such vehicles being used as air ambulances and for cargo delivery to remote, rural areas. (RT, LAT, YF, BBG, RT)