A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“If your mind is not switched on and excited about things, you grow old really fast. I think that’s when you age and your body starts to go. I think life’s over at that point.” – Kelly Slater
Overnight
Hurricane Milton could cause as much as $175 billion in damage, according to early estimates CNBC
US considers asking court to break up Google as it weighs remedies in the antitrust case AP
Federal deficit hit $1.8 trillion for 2024, CBO says WSJ
Nobel Prize in chemistry awarded for work on proteins LM
The FBI arrested an Afghan man who officials say was planning an Election Day attack NPR
Fourteen AGs sue TikTok, accusing it of harming children’s mental health NBC
Brazil lifts ban on Elon Musk’s X following disinformation fight SEM
Geopolitical strife could cost global economy $14.5 trln over 5 years – Lloyd’s of London RT
MI5 warns Russia, Iran paying criminals to sow street ‘mayhem’ in UK, Europe SEM
Argentina politician eyes breakaway province plan BBC
Boeing withdraws contract offer after talks with union end without a deal CNBC
McDonald’s sues major beef producers in U.S. price-fixing lawsuit QZ
Spirit Halloween to open 10 new ‘Spirit Christmas’ stores catering to holiday shoppers CNBC
Home Depot orders corporate staff to take 8-hour retail shifts BBG
American Water, largest water utility, hit by cyberattack at time of rising threats against U.S. water supply CNBC
I am not Bitcoin inventor, says man named in HBO film BBC
Mining giant Rio Tinto to acquire Arcadium Lithium in $6.7 billion deal CNBC
Hindenburg Research shorts Roblox, alleging inflated metrics RT
Teenager claims first ever Tetris ‘rebirth’ BBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -8
point(s) (-0.1%
) Overnight range: -20 to -0 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +0.87%
Topix +0.3% China SHCOMP -6.62% Hang Seng -1.38% Korea flat Singapore +0.56% Australia +0.13% India -0.19% Taiwan +0.21% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.02%
Stoxx 600 +0.21% FTSE 100 +0.47% DAX +0.09% CAC 40 +0.14% Italy +0.05% IBEX -0.16% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.08%
to 102.63 EUR/USD -0.14% to 1.0965 GBP/USD -0.14% to 1.3086 USD/JPY +0.3% to 148.65 USD/CNY +0.07% to 7.0682 USD/CNH -0.01% to 7.0728 USD/CHF -0.06% to 0.8569 USD/CAD +0.14% to 1.3666 AUD/USD -0.09% to 0.6738 |
| Crypto |
| BTC -0.28%
to 62176.14 ETH -0.26% to 2435.53 XRP +0.15% to 0.5313 Cardano -0.52% to 0.3433 Solana -0.28% to 143.0 Avalanche -0.16% to 26.48 Dogecoin +1.68% to 0.1092 Chainlink -1.23% to 10.78 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX +1.17%
to 21.67 WTI Crude +0.73% to 74.11 Brent Crude +0.66% to 77.69 Nat Gas -1.17% to 2.7 RBOB Gas +0.57% to 2.08 Heating Oil +0.38% to 2.306 Gold -0.22% to 2616.16 Silver +0.03% to 30.68 Copper -0.53% to 4.433 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -2.9bps
to 4.7764% 3M -0.6bps to 4.6202% 6M -1.9bps to 4.4195% 12M -2.5bps to 4.1669% 2Y -0.2bps to 3.9567% 5Y +0.2bps to 3.8481% 7Y +0.5bps to 3.9167% 10Y +0.4bps to 4.0159% 20Y +0.6bps to 4.3664% 30Y +0.7bps to 4.3002% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 1.9bps to -70.2
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread widened 0.5bps to 5.7 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.3bps to 28.2 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.97%
SPX Eq Wt +0.24% NASDAQ 100 +1.55% NASDAQ Comp +1.45% Russell Midcap +0.28% R2k +0.09% R1k Value +0.09% R1k Growth +1.65% R2k Value -0.27% R2k Growth +0.44% FANG+ +2.07% Semis +1.73% Software +2.14% Biotech +0.8% Regional Banks -0.31% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Tech +2.12% Comm Srvcs +1.07% Cons Disc +1.04% SPX +0.97% Cons Staples +0.67% Fin +0.57% Healthcare +0.54% REITs +0.28% Indu +0.22% Utes +0.06% Materials -0.37% Energy -2.63% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +2.4bp
to 344bp All Sectors ex-Energy +1.8bp to 320bp Cons Disc +2.5bp to 302bp Indu +1.9bp to 250bp Tech +2.3bp to 340bp Comm Srvcs +1.4bp to 560bp Materials +3.7bp to 318bp Energy +6.1bp to 317bp Fin Snr +0.8bp to 301bp Fin Sub +1.5bp to 213bp Cons Staples +1.1bp to 324bp Healthcare +1.1bp to 373bp Utes +2.1bp to 218bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/9 | 2PM | Sep 18 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 1.0 |
| 10/10 | 8:30AM | Sep CPI m/m | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 10/10 | 8:30AM | Sep Core CPI m/m | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 10/10 | 8:30AM | Sep CPI y/y | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| 10/10 | 8:30AM | Sep Core CPI y/y | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| 10/11 | 8:30AM | Sep PPI m/m | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 10/11 | 8:30AM | Sep Core PPI m/m | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 10/11 | 10AM | Oct P UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| 10/11 | 10AM | Oct P UMich Sentiment | 71.0 | 70.1 |
| 10/14 | 11AM | Sep NYFed 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 3.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
We remain in a “whipsaw” market, with 3Q24 EPS around the corner, but we still expect investors to buy the dip.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- Short-term SPX snapback rally should lead to push to new highs over next 1-2 weeks.
- Software ETF (IGV 0.45% ) has broken back out to new high territory.
- Technology is approaching a meaningful area vs S&P 500.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
- The post-NFP market setup is encouraging for crypto
- Profit-taking in Chinese equities could serve as a tailwind for BNB
- MSTR’s divergence from BTC could lead to $900 million in BTC inflows in the near term.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Fitness and nutrition professionals often advise clients that rapid weight-loss diets can do more harm than good: the resulting reduction in weight tends to include a significant loss of lean muscle mass. Not only does this result in decreased strength, but also a slower basal metabolic rate that makes it more difficult to keep the weight off.
Patients who use blockbuster GLP-1 weight loss treatments like Ozempic/Wegovy and Mounjaro/Zepbound can often experience rapid weight loss, with some losing 15 pounds in as few as three months. As it turns out, GLP-1 assisted weight loss can also result in the same undesired reduction in lean muscle mass – accounting for between 25% and 40% of the lost weight.
Some drug companies see opportunity in developing a pharmaceutical solution to this muscle-mass loss that can be used alongside GLP-1 medications, possibly making the weight-loss effect more potent and also potentially more sustainable after the treatment period ends. Many of the candidates for such a solution were originally investigated for their use in muscle-wasting diseases and musculoskeletal disorders.
Eli Lilly has taken a multi-pronged approach to investigating the possibility of pairing Mounjaro with a second medication to help patients maintain, or even gain, muscle mass. It has partnered with the biotech startup BioAge labs to investigate combining Mounjaro with BioAge’s azelaprag. The results of clinical phase 1 (safety) studies suggested that the two treatments combined might preserve lean body tissue and result in greater weight loss than Mounjaro alone. Last year, Eli Lilly also acquired Versanis, acquiring rights to its bimagrumab, which Versanis believes shows similar promise. (In fact, in early tests of bimagrumab, some patients taking the experimental medication on its own also reported significant weight loss.)
Meanwhile, Regeneron is researching the effects of pairing Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy with two different medications in its pipeline – trevogrumab, originally developed to treat sarcopenia, and garetosmab, developed as a treatment for Münchmeyer disease (aka Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva).
In the meantime, healthcare professionals recommend that patients using GLP-1 drugs incorporate a diet with adequate protein and an exercise regimen that includes resistance or weight training. (NAT, FT, ATL)
