A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“I believe that man’s noblest endowment is his capacity to change.” ~Leonard Bernstein
Over the Weekend
Nobel Prize for medicine goes to scientists who discovered microRNA SEM
U.S. crude oil jumps nearly 3%, trades above $76 as market waits for Israel strike against Iran CNBC
Bond traders buckle up for ‘no landing’ after jobs surprise BBG
Hurricane Milton has formed and could grow stronger before hitting Florida midweek AP
U.S. wiretap systems targeted in China-linked hack WSJ
Rio Tinto looks to snap up Arcadium before lithium prices recover RT
Big oil urges Trump not to gut Biden’s climate law WSJ
Anxious Europeans hoard savings as US consumers boost global economy FT
Historic China rally is failing to convince top fund managers BBG
Corporate insiders are sitting out the 2024 market rally WSJ
Active ETFs triumph over passives in fees from new flows FT
Google’s share of US search ad market is slipping as TikTok and AI startups present new competition WSJ
Wynn Resorts earned UAE’s first gambling license RT
China-linked security breach targeted U.S. wiretap systems, WSJ reports
BP reportedly abandons goal to cut oil output, resets strategy RT
Italian prosecutors accuse 7 people, 2 firms over flawed Boeing plane parts RT
Earth’s first-ever planetary defense test is nearing its end SEM
‘It kills everything’ – Amazon’s indigenous people hit by record forest fires in Brazil BBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -29
point(s) (-0.5%
) overnight range: -37 to +8 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +1.80%
Topix +1.68% China SHCOMP +8.06% Hang Seng +1.60% Korea +1.58% Singapore +0.28% Australia +0.68% India -0.87% Taiwan +1.79% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +0.04%
Stoxx 600 +0.09% FTSE 100 +0.45% DAX -0.22% CAC 40 +0.18% Italy +0.23% IBEX +0.61% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) -0.04%
to 102.48 EUR/USD +0.04% to 1.0978 GBP/USD -0.27% to 1.3087 USD/JPY +0.34% to 148.19 USD/CNY -0.11% to 7.0187 USD/CNH +0.49% to 7.0640 USD/CHF +0.36% to 0.8553 USD/CAD -0.03% to 1.3580 AUD/USD -0.04% to 0.6792 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread widened 5.7bps to -65.2bps
10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed -4.5bps to -0.3bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed -1.8bps to 26.2bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX +0.90%
SPX Eq Wt +0.78% NASDAQ 100 +1.22% NASDAQ Comp +1.22% Russell Midcap +0.86% R2k +1.50% R1k Value +0.77% R1k Growth +1.10% R2k Value +1.26% R2k Growth +1.73% FANG+ +1.83% Semis +1.34% Software +1.80% Biotech +0.90% Regional Banks +2.05% SPX GICS1 Sorted: REITs -0.65% Utes -0.17% Healthcare +0.08% Cons Staples +0.22% Materials +0.41% Indu +0.63% SPX +0.90% Tech +0.99% Energy +1.07% Comm Srvcs +1.20% Cons Disc +1.62% Fin +1.64% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors +0.4bps
to 336bps All Sectors ex-Energy -2.1bps 310bps Cons Disc +0.1bps 292bps Indu -7.6bps 240bps Tech -1.1bps 331bps Comm Srvcs -1.0bps 554bps Materials -2.9bps 306bps Energy -0.8bps 306bps Fin Snr +2.0bps 296bps Fin Sub flat at 212bps Cons Staples -6.0bps 306bps Healthcare -2.6bps 360bps Utes -2.8bps 203bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/8 | 6:00 AM | Sep Small Biz Optimisum | 92 | 91.2 |
| 10/8 | 8:30 AM | Aug Trade Balance | -70.5 | -78.791 |
| 10/9 | 2:00 PM | Sep 18 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0 |
| 10/9 | 2:00 PM | Sep 18 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0 |
| 10/10 | 8:30 AM | Sep CPI m/m | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 10/10 | 8:30 AM | Sep Core CPI m/m | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 10/10 | 8:30 AM | Sep CPI y/y | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| 10/10 | 8:30 AM | Sep Core CPI y/y | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| 10/11 | 8:30 AM | Sep PPI m/m | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 10/11 | 8:30 AM | Sep Core PPI m/m | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 10/11 | 10:00 AM | Oct P UMich 1yr Inf Exp | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| 10/11 | 10:00 AM | Oct P UMich Sentiment | 70.5 | 70.1 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
The market’s response to Friday’s September jobs report and the tentative strike resolution shows good news is good news. The bull market remains intact. However, that might not be enough to give a broader greenlight for stocks.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- Short-term SPX breakout should lead back to new highs into Yom Kippur.
- Financials look to outperform in the near-term after Friday’s surge.
- Airlines and Cruise-liner stocks are both basing ahead of expected breakouts.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
Senate control flipping to Republicans post-election could lead to a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto, regardless of what happens in the White House. However, tactically, it is prudent to consider that prices will correlate with Trump’s odds on election night.
Click HERE for more.
First News
When GPS technology was first developed, its use was reserved exclusively for the U.S. military. However, in 1983, the Soviets shot down a Korean Airlines flight after the airliner accidentally wandered off course into their airspace. Hoping to prevent any similar tragedies in the future, President Ronald Reagan ordered that GPS technology be made available for civilian use. Four decades later, GPS technology has become ubiquitous and essential for our daily lives. Most of us walk around every day with a GPS-equipped smartphone in our pockets or bags, using them to navigate – or sometimes just to find the nearest coffee shop or gas station.
Now, GPS spoofing is threatening to render that technology unreliable, or worse. The practice is, apparently, far less high-tech or difficult than the producers of the 1997 Bond movie Tomorrow Never Dies would have us believe. All that is needed is some open-source software and a powerful radio transmitter costing a few thousand dollars.
GPS spoofing has obvious military applications. For example, Ukrainian soldiers seeking to launch drone attacks against Russian forces have sometimes been stymied by GPS spoofing and jamming that left the drones unable to complete their missions – or sometimes even take off.
Such attacks had also put commercial planes flying near conflict zones – for example in Ukraine, around the India border with Pakistan, or near Israel – at risk, but now the risk has spread beyond those areas. This year, pilots are reporting an alarming surge in such incidents even when they are not anywhere near such areas. The number of reported incidents per day went from a few dozen in February to as many as 1,100 a day in August. Such spoofing attacks affect cockpit systems in multiple ways.
One incident reported by the Wall Street Journal involved a United Airlines flight that was hit by a spoofing attack while on its way from New Dehli, India to Newark, NJ. The pilots were able to use other navigation systems to make their way to Newark Liberty International and touch down safely, even as the plane’s GPS not-so-helpfully informed the pilots that they were landing in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. In another case reported by Reuters, counterfeit GPS signals caused an unidentified commercial airliner’s clocks to move forward by several years. This cut off pilots’ access to digitally encrypted communications systems.
Militaries are getting better at figuring out how to locate and destroy jamming equipment. For commercial pilots, however, there are no immediate solutions that commercial airline pilots can deploy when bad actors interfere with cockpit GPS signals, except to rely on backup systems such as the Inertial Reference System. In the meantime, airlines, airliner manufacturers, and aviation regulators around the world are working on longer-term solutions that include both hardening existing systems to spoofing and developing newer, more secure alternatives to GPS navigation. (WSJ FT BD, GPSW)