A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“Recipes are overrated.” ~ Jose Andres
Overnight
The ‘Midwest Nice’ debate: Vance and Walz put the ‘civil’ in civil war SEM
Israel strikes Beirut, plans retaliation after missile attack by Iran stokes fears of wider war FT
US job openings rise to 8 million as labor market remains sturdy AP
US new vehicle sales fall in Q3 on fewer selling days, inflationary headwinds RT
Wegovy, Ozempic, Mounjaro, Zepbound supplies caught up in East Coast port strike CNBC
Charles Schwab names Rick Wurster as next CEO WSJ
J&J to invest more than $2 billion in new NC manufacturing facility RT
Samsung to Cut Thousands of Jobs as Part of Worldwide Layoffs BBG
US warns foreign operators may be using Boeing 737s with suspect rudder control parts RT
Jeep hybrid SUV owners should park outside pending recall fix, NHTSA says RT
DOJ announces investigation into Tulsa race massacre TG
Award-winning Cambodian journalist who exposed cyberscams arrested for alleged incitement BBC
Pink Floyd agrees deal to sell music rights to Sony for $400mn FT
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures -15
point(s) (-0.3%
) overnight range: -24 to +4 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -2.18%
Topix -1.44% China SHCOMP +8.06% Hang Seng +6.20% Korea -1.22% Singapore +0.10% Australia -0.13% India -0.05% Taiwan +0.75% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.23%
Stoxx 600 -0.22% FTSE 100 +0.09% DAX -0.65% CAC 40 -0.13% Italy -0.52% IBEX -0.55% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.07%
to 101.27 EUR/USD +0.03% to 1.1071 GBP/USD +0.02% to 1.3289 USD/JPY -0.84% to 144.78 USD/CNY -0.11% to 7.0187 USD/CNH +0.04% to 7.0271 USD/CHF -0.15% to 0.8479 USD/CAD +0.02% to 1.3487 AUD/USD +0.20% to 0.6897 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed -2.1bps
to -100.4bps
10Y-2 Y Spread widened 2.2bps to 14.5bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.9bps to 34.7bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.93%
SPX Eq Wt -0.53% NASDAQ 100 -1.43% NASDAQ Comp -1.53% Russell Midcap -0.69% R2k -1.48% R1k Value -0.40% R1k Growth -1.38% R2k Value -1.59% R2k Growth -1.36% FANG+ -1.64% Semis -2.68% Software -2.11% Biotech -0.84% Regional Banks -3.34% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Tech -2.66% SPX -0.93% REITs -0.66% Fin -0.55% Cons Disc -0.51% Healthcare -0.51% Materials -0.32% Cons Staples -0.27% Indu -0.01% Comm Srvcs +0.40% Utes +0.81% Energy +2.23% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -1.2bps
to 357bps All Sectors ex-Energy -0.7bps 306bps Cons Disc -2.7bps 313bps Indu -1.2bps 256bps Tech -0.3bps 354bps Comm Srvcs -2.4bps Materials -0.8bps 334bps Energy -2.2bps 336bps Fin Snr +0.1bps 316bps Fin Sub +1.0bps 229bps Cons Staples +0.5bps 327bps Healthcare -0.1bps 375bps Utes +0.0bps 224bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/3 | 9:45 AM | Sep F S&P Srvcs PMI | 55.4 | 55.4 |
| 10/3 | 10:00 AM | Sep ISM Srvcs PMI | 51.7 | 51.5 |
| 10/3 | 10:00 AM | Aug F Durable Gds Orders | 0 | 0 |
| 10/4 | 8:30 AM | Sep AHE m/m | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 10/4 | 8:30 AM | Sep Unemployment Rate | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| 10/4 | 8:30 AM | Sep Non-farm Payrolls | 150 | 142 |
| 10/8 | 6:00 AM | Sep Small Biz Optimisum | n/a | 91.2 |
| 10/8 | 8:30 AM | Aug Trade Balance | -73.3 | -78.791 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
Already headwinds are emerging for October, but we believe the existing tailwinds are stronger and ultimately investors will buy this dip.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- Short-term consolidation in US Stock indices has ignored all the “bad news”.
- Percentage of US Stocks within 20% of 12-month highs remains quite healthy.
- Treasury yields could briefly pull back to new monthly lows.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
The escalating global conflict has sparked a selloff in crypto, but we believe a strong rebound is likely. Among the names worth watching closely are HNT and BONK.
Click HERE for more.
First News
In an era of credit-card and electronic transactions, JPMorgan Chase recently found itself victimized by, of all things, check fraud. Inspired by a viral post on TikTok about about a software error, thousands of users flocked to Chase ATMs to deposit paper checks written out for large amounts from accounts known to be lacking in funds, then made cash withdrawals for the sums in their entirety. Naturally, these checks bounced, leaving the bank holding the proverbial bag.
JPMorgan Chase is not the only institution to have incurred losses in this manner. Fidelity Investments was also victimized by users who used the firm’s mobile app to carry out a similar scheme. (It has since revised its policy to prevent future occurrences.)
Readers above a certain age will recall that this crime is called “check kiting,” but they might be surprised to learn that check fraud has been surging for years – long before the problematic TikTok video was posted. In early September, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network released an analysis that attributed an estimated $688 million in “suspicious activity” over a six-month period to check fraud.
This might be surprising, given the sharp decline in check usage in the past two decades: the Federal Reserve helped to process just 3.1 billion checks last year, down from 17 billion checks a year in 2000. (Not all checks are processed through the Federal Reserve, but this data shows the extent of the decline in check usage.)
But while banks have put in place safeguards to protect electronic transactions, check fraud remains relatively easy to carry out. It is often just a simple matter of stealing checks from residential mailboxes. From there, the checks can be altered, fraudulently cashed, and/or used to facilitate counterfeiting efforts. Smaller banks are placing some of the blame for rising check fraud on larger banks like Chase, which they accuse of inadequate controls that too frequently allow criminals to open so-called “drop accounts” or “mule accounts,” which are used to make fraudulent check deposits. (WSJ, AB, WSJ, FinCEN)
