A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell
“The reward for work well done is the opportunity to do more.” – Jonas Salk
China redoubles first-aid for its economy with support for banks and workers AP
NYC Mayor Eric Adams indicted on federal criminal charges NYT
US and China drive global debt to record $312T in H1 RT
US 30Y mortgage fell to 6.13% to the lowest in two years RT
Top bankers chase a big payday by defecting to private credit BBG
Mortgage refinance boom takes hold, as weekly demand surges 20% CNBC
US holiday spending on buy now, pay later projected to hit record due to debt-laden shoppers RT
SEC charges Merrill Lynch, Harvest Volatility Management for ignoring client investment limits CNBC
Google files EU Antitrust complaint against Microsoft WSJ
Amazon accused of stealing American Eagle trademarks to promote dupes BBG
Judge approves $600 million settlement for residents near fiery Ohio derailment AP
Meta’s Orion AR glasses: a wireless taste of a neural future CNET
Micron forecasts upbeat first-quarter revenue on strong demand for memory chips CNBC
Hurricane Helene forecast to explode into catastrophic Category 4 ahead of Florida landfall CNN
Biden announces ‘surge’ in military assistance to Ukraine SEM
Harris pledges $100 billion in tax credits to boost U.S. manufacturing WSJ
China-linked hackers breach U.S. internet [roviders in new ‘Salt Typhoon’ cyberattack WSJ
One in three children short-sighted, study suggests BBC
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +47
point(s) (+0.8%
) Overnight range: +2 to +49 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei +2.79%
Topix +2.66% China SHCOMP +3.61% Hang Seng +4.16% Korea +2.9% Singapore -0.03% Australia +0.95% India +0.89% Taiwan +0.43% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 +1.72%
Stoxx 600 +1.04% FTSE 100 +0.33% DAX +1.19% CAC 40 +1.47% Italy +1.49% IBEX +1.16% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.0%
to 100.92 EUR/USD +0.14% to 1.1149 GBP/USD +0.3% to 1.3364 USD/JPY +0.04% to 144.81 USD/CNY -0.21% to 7.0192 USD/CNH -0.35% to 7.0081 USD/CHF -0.29% to 0.8479 USD/CAD -0.14% to 1.3466 AUD/USD +0.67% to 0.6869 |
| Crypto |
| BTC +0.41%
to 63748.86 ETH +1.47% to 2618.52 XRP flat at 0.5871 Cardano +2.71% to 0.3938 Solana +1.89% to 150.77 Avalanche +2.2% to 27.89 Dogecoin +2.99% to 0.1136 Chainlink +0.14% to 12.21 |
| Commodities and Others |
| VIX -1.95%
to 15.11 WTI Crude -1.81% to 68.43 Brent Crude -1.78% to 72.15 Nat Gas +1.29% to 2.67 RBOB Gas -1.42% to 1.972 Heating Oil -1.7% to 2.123 Gold +0.44% to 2668.48 Silver +1.37% to 32.25 Copper +1.14% to 4.479 |
| US Treasuries |
| 1M -2.6bps
to 4.6355% 3M -1.1bps to 4.6037% 6M -1.4bps to 4.3687% 12M -1.6bps to 3.8989% 2Y -0.4bps to 3.5551% 5Y -0.5bps to 3.5206% 7Y -1.3bps to 3.6313% 10Y -1.3bps to 3.7715% 20Y -1.8bps to 4.1678% 30Y -1.6bps to 4.1236% |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed 0.1bps to -106.4
bps 10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed 0.9bps to 21.4 bps 30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.3bps to 35.0 bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.19%
SPX Eq Wt -0.62% NASDAQ 100 +0.14% NASDAQ Comp +0.04% Russell Midcap -0.77% R2k -1.19% R1k Value -0.66% R1k Growth +0.14% R2k Value -1.4% R2k Growth -0.99% FANG+ -0.19% Semis +0.88% Software -0.52% Biotech -0.97% Regional Banks -1.5% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Utes +0.54% Tech +0.5% Cons Staples -0.03% Comm Srvcs -0.04% SPX -0.19% Cons Disc -0.38% REITs -0.4% Indu -0.46% Fin -0.6% Materials -0.6% Healthcare -0.94% Energy -1.9% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -2.4bp
to 364bp All Sectors ex-Energy -2.8bp to 337bp Cons Disc -2.5bp to 320bp Indu -3.8bp to 268bp Tech -7.7bp to 350bp Comm Srvcs -1.6bp to 598bp Materials -4.1bp to 346bp Energy -0.3bp to 326bp Fin Snr -0.9bp to 325bp Fin Sub -1.5bp to 233bp Cons Staples -1.3bp to 327bp Healthcare -3.5bp to 377bp Utes -1.1bp to 224bp * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/26 | 8:30AM | 2Q T GDP QoQ | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 9/26 | 8:30AM | Aug P Durable Gds Orders | -2.7 | 9.8 |
| 9/27 | 8:30AM | Aug PCE m/m | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| 9/27 | 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE m/m | 0.2 | 0.16 |
| 9/27 | 8:30AM | Aug PCE y/y | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| 9/27 | 8:30AM | Aug Core PCE y/y | 2.7 | 2.62042 |
| 9/27 | 10AM | Sep F UMich 1yr Inf Exp | n/a | 2.7 |
| 9/27 | 10AM | Sep F UMich Sentiment | 69.3 | 69.0 |
| 10/1 | 9:45AM | Sep F S&P Manu PMI | n/a | 47.0 |
| 10/1 | 10AM | Sep ISM Manu PMI | 47.0 | 47.2 |
| 10/1 | 10AM | Aug JOLTS | n/a | 7673.0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
We see three fundamental drivers that will impact stocks into year-end. The associated correlations, and other factors, particularly favor small-caps, in our view.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
- Short-term bullish trend looks to be “back on track” after pushing to record highs.
- Industrials have just broken out vs. SPX (Both in Equal-weighted terms).
- Biotech has weakened, but has not violated support.
Click HERE for more.
CRYPTO
The crypto market has been consolidating over the past 12 hours following Bitcoin’s first daily close above its 200-day moving average since last August. Meanwhile, Binance has introduced a pre-market spot trading service, allowing users to trade tokens before their official spot market listing.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Shifts in Openness. Internal disruptions are continuing at OpenAI months after the attempted ouster of CEO Sam Altman. Reuters reported yesterday that the powerhouse AI developer will transition its core business into an independent, for-profit company. The development brings to mind a lawsuit that Elon Musk filed in March against the company he co-founded, in which he alleged the company had breached its contract in abandoning its stated mission as a non-profit to develop AI for the “benefit of humanity.” (Musk withdrew the lawsuit in June, then revived it in August, this time adding allegations that the company defrauded him in raising money through purported lies about its altruistic intentions.)
Also yesterday, it was announced that Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati, along with chief research officer Bob McGrew and vice president of research Barret Zoph, would be resigning. The departures add to the exodus of key personnel from OpenAI this year, including chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, co-founder John Schulman, and superalignment (AI safety) head Jan Leike. Another co-founder Greg Brockman, departed on sabbatical in August. (RT, BBG, CNBC, VOX)
