Surprising Connections, Surprising Conclusions

A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell

“For a transitory enchanted moment, man must have held his breath in the presence of this continent, compelled into an aesthetic contemplation he neither understood nor desired, face to face for the last time in history with something commensurate to his capacity for wonder.” — F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby,

Overnight

Israeli military rescues hostage from Gaza tunnel WSJ

U.S. consumer confidence rises slightly in August CB

Home prices hit record high in June on S&P Case-Shiller Index CNBC

Failed sale, appraisal delays behind first loss on a AAA bond since 2008 crisis RT

A time bomb threatens economies across Asia WSJ

Klarna aims to halve workforce with AI-driven gains FT

Swiss launch instant payments to catch up with Europe RT

Chip challengers try to break Nvidia’s grip on AI market FT

Tech giants look to repurpose old power stations to slake data-center demand RT

Hindenburg takes aim at AI server maker Super Micro with short position RT

Intel board member quit after differences over chipmaker’s revival plan RT

U.S. awards $521 million in grants to boost EV charging network RT

Nordea Bank reaches $35 mln settlement with New York tied to Panama Papers RT

TotalEnergies unit to pay $48 million over alleged gasoline futures manipulation WSJ

Bank of Montreal warns of credit pressures after profit miss, shares fall RT

Zepbound and other weight-loss drugs get more good news; why it’s too soon to celebrate Barron’s

Google refused permission to build data center near Dublin BBG

Omnicom brings TBWA, BBDO and other agencies under same leadership WSJ

NFL’s Kelce brothers sign $100 million podcast deal with Amazon BBG

The cost of cracking cancer: what the $1tn race for a cure leaves behind FT

The Midwest cities in search of new migrants FT

Starmer signals pain and ‘unpopular decisions’ to fix Britain RT

Iranian leader opens door to negotiations with U.S. over Tehran’s nuclear program AP

You heard that right: U.S. military runs Tinder ads in Middle East, raises eyebrows TC

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy to present plan to Biden to end war with Russia RT

Fallout from NASA’s asteroid-smashing DART mission could hit Earth, potentially triggering 1st human-caused meteor shower LS

Swiss scientists make a chocolate breakthrough Fortune

The private-equity scion buying up America’s trophy homes WSJ

The rise of the $1,000-a-night hotel room WSJ

Leonard Riggio, who built Barnes & Noble into book-retailing powerhouse, is dead at 83 WSJ

Chart of the Day

Surprising Connections, Surprising Conclusions

MARKET LEVELS

Overnight
S&P Futures +3 point(s) (+0.1% )
Overnight range: -14 to +6 point(s)
 
APAC
Nikkei +0.22%
Topix +0.42%
China SHCOMP -0.4%
Hang Seng -1.02%
Korea +0.02%
Singapore -0.22%
Australia +0.0%
India +0.16%
Taiwan +0.84%
 
Europe
Stoxx 50 +0.46%
Stoxx 600 +0.39%
FTSE 100 -0.03%
DAX +0.61%
CAC 40 +0.37%
Italy +0.23%
IBEX +0.02%
 
FX
Dollar Index (DXY) +0.29% to 100.84
EUR/USD -0.42% to 1.1137
GBP/USD -0.33% to 1.3217
USD/JPY +0.17% to 144.2
USD/CNY +0.01% to 7.1247
USD/CNH +0.08% to 7.1271
USD/CHF +0.08% to 0.8423
USD/CAD +0.14% to 1.3463
AUD/USD -0.03% to 0.6791
 
Crypto
BTC -3.71% to 59558.63
ETH -3.59% to 2488.88
XRP -2.51% to 0.5755
Cardano -3.39% to 0.3536
Solana -0.33% to 146.38
Avalanche -3.71% to 24.42
Dogecoin -3.0% to 0.1003
Chainlink -2.65% to 11.24
 
Commodities and Others
VIX +0.45% to 15.5
WTI Crude -0.94% to 74.82
Brent Crude -0.85% to 78.87
Nat Gas +0.05% to 1.91
RBOB Gas -1.62% to 2.211
Heating Oil -1.08% to 2.261
Gold -0.55% to 2510.65
Silver -1.4% to 29.56
Copper -1.59% to 4.17
 
US Treasuries
1M -0.6bps to 5.3202%
3M -0.8bps to 5.0918%
6M -0.8bps to 4.8254%
12M -2.2bps to 4.3584%
2Y -3.8bps to 3.8609%
5Y +0.3bps to 3.6514%
7Y -0.0bps to 3.7219%
10Y flat at 3.8216%
20Y -0.5bps to 4.197%
30Y -0.5bps to 4.1077%
 
UST Term Structure
2Y-3 M Spread narrowed 5.1bps to -126.7 bps
10Y-2 Y Spread widened 3.8bps to -4.3 bps
30Y-10 Y Spread narrowed 0.4bps to 28.4 bps
 
Yesterday's Recap
SPX +0.16%
SPX Eq Wt +0.05%
NASDAQ 100 +0.33%
NASDAQ Comp +0.16%
Russell Midcap -0.09%
R2k -0.67%
R1k Value -0.01%
R1k Growth +0.26%
R2k Value -0.8%
R2k Growth -0.54%
FANG+ -0.28%
Semis +1.01%
Software +0.27%
Biotech -0.62%
Regional Banks -0.96% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Tech +0.63%
Fin +0.48%
REITs +0.25%
Cons Staples +0.22%
SPX +0.16%
Healthcare +0.1%
Indu +0.01%
Materials -0.01%
Comm Srvcs -0.43%
Cons Disc -0.47%
Utes -0.74%
Energy -0.93%
 
USD HY OaS
All Sectors +0.9bp to 368bp
All Sectors ex-Energy +0.2bp to 342bp
Cons Disc +1.4bp to 321bp
Indu +1.6bp to 268bp
Tech +0.5bp to 349bp
Comm Srvcs +2.7bp to 646bp
Materials +2.8bp to 346bp
Energy +3.5bp to 297bp
Fin Snr -0.8bp to 322bp
Fin Sub +1.8bp to 240bp
Cons Staples -0.7bp to 309bp
Healthcare +0.5bp to 400bp
Utes -7.5bp to 220bp *
DateTimeDescriptionEstimateLast
8/298:30AM2Q S GDP QoQ2.82.8
8/308:30AMJul PCE m/m0.20.1
8/308:30AMJul Core PCE m/m0.20.18
8/308:30AMJul PCE y/y2.62.5
8/308:30AMJul Core PCE y/y2.72.63027
8/3010AMAug F UMich 1yr Inf Expn/a2.9
8/3010AMAug F UMich Sentiment68.067.8
9/39:45AMAug F S&P Manu PMIn/a48.0
9/310AMAug ISM Manu PMI47.846.8

MORNING INSIGHT

Good morning!

While all eyes are on NVDA Wed. – surprisingly, S&P 500 moved in the same direction as NVDA only 3 of the last 7 reports. More surprising, Small-caps have outperformed S&P 500 post-NVDA EPS.

Click HERE for more.

TECHNICAL

The stalling out in most U.S. Equity indices over the last week hasn’t taken away from the appeal of the current rally from early August lows. A bullish advance back to new all-time highs is still expected into mid-September ahead of any seasonal Fall correction. The Equal-weighted SPX has already pushed back to new all-time-high territory, coinciding with the breakdown in the U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields, while Small-caps have started to kick into gear once again. Furthermore, market breadth remains constructive and sentiment is not yet bullish enough to mark a larger market peak. Cycles show strength into mid-September in both Equities and Treasuries before a selloff takes hold, and sectors such as Financials and Consumer Discretionary have been instrumental in serving as a tailwind for Equity gains at a time when Technology has proven somewhat wobbly. Overall, unless NVDA and, by extension, Technology starts to roll over in bigger fashion, it looks right to stay bullish.

Click HERE for more.

CRYPTO

In our latest video, we analyze recent constructive flows data, explore the downside volatility seen after the US market close, discuss the MKR rebrand, and examine how HPC miners could benefit from an expected NVDA earnings beat.

Click HERE for more.

First News

Past Lives Dept. A new survey put a question to teens: is it harder being a teenager today than it was 20 years ago. Of the respondents, 44% of American teens said it is harder today than it was two decades ago. Of these, 31% said they felt more pressure and expectations, 25% said social media was making things harder, 15% said the world and country had changed in a bad way, while 11% cited technology in general as the culprit. Still, 12% of teens said it’s easier being a teenager today than it was 20 years ago, with 46% citing technology in general as the reason. One question begs itself: teens, by definition, were not around 20 years ago; how do they know what life was like?

One answer could come from a past-life-wrangler or, say, clairvoyant. For instance, the Mountain View Whisman School District, specifically its K-8 school part (start early, before they’re teens, they say) has been paying $189,000 to keep an energy healer on retainer for 160 meditation sessions. The contract with the district seems to have been for stress-related meditation. As it’s Burning Man week, no one is around to comment.

Still, as a result of at least one small study, we know that a five-minute zap with low-intensity ultrasound waves can short-circuit some of the negative pathways of a wandering mind, such as excessive introspection and off-task rumination (on the vagaries of the stock market, say). After a brief session of ultrasound stimulation to a deep-brain area called the default mode network (DMN) – as compared with participants who received a placebo stimulation – study participants reported an increased ability to be in the moment (to feel present) and to suspend judgment of themselves and others.

The steep learning curve tends to be the greatest barrier to adoption of a meditation and mindfulness practice. Brain stimulation can be akin to training wheels for the mind, helping people achieve deep states of consciousness. What’s more, it can help those who are unhappy or suffering. Abnormal connectivity and functioning in the DMN is associated with anxiety and depression, and the interruption of those negative pathways can help people have fewer negative thoughts, experiencing more (positive and, ultimately, productive) detachment from feelings and time. Pew Research Center, The Los Angeles Times, Scientific American

Disclosures (show)