Market Digests Prospect of Quantitative Tightening, Biden Passes Inflation Baton to Powell, Digital Dollar Report Released Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Markets sold off intensely this week and commentators seem to have a lot of uncertainty about the approaching prospect of quantitative tightening. Remember QE Infinity? It appears the Fed is seriously approaching contracting its balance sheet at the same time as raising rates, or soon after. Markets have historical precedent to be apprehensive given this is the end of the most accommodative period in the history of the US Central Bank.
The most recent large-scale effort by the Federal Reserve to shrink the balance sheet happened at the end of Janet Yellen’s tenure as Chairman and at the beginning of Powell’s first-term, from October 2017 to September 2019. The Fed’s balance sheet was about half the size then as it is now. The shrinking that occurred was only about 16% of the total balance sheet and equalled about $710 billion. The effort ended unsuccessfully when repo market rates spiked. For a market awash in liquidity and also copious significant risks, this prodigious change will inevitably cause volatility.


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Thomas J. Lee
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