-
Research
-
Latest Research
- Tom Lee, CFA AC
-
First Word
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Intraday Word
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Macro Minute Video
FSI Pro FSI Macro
- Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
-
Daily Technical Strategy
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Live Technical Stock Analysis
FSI Pro FSI Macro
- L . Thomas Block
-
US Policy
FSI Pro FSI Macro
- Market Intelligence
-
Your Weekly Roadmap
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Weekly
-
First to Market
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Signal From Noise
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Weekly FSI Community
-
Earnings Daily
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Weekly
-
Fed Watch
FSI Pro FSI Macro
- Crypto Research
-
Strategy
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Market Update
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Funding Fridays
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Concepts
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Comments
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Liquid Ventures
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Deep Research
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Miscellaneous
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
DeFi Digest
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Technical Analysis
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Latest Research
-
Media
-
Latest Media
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
- Video Reports
-
Macro Minute Video
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
-
Daily Technical Strategy
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
-
Crypto Video
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
- Webinars
-
Latest Webinars
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
-
Market Outlook
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
-
Granny Shots
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
-
Technical Strategy
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
-
Crypto
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
-
Special Guest
FSI Pro FSI Macro FSI Crypto
- Media Appearances
-
Latest Appearances
-
Tom Lee, CFA AC
-
Mark L. Newton, CMT AC
-
Sean Farrell AC
-
L . Thomas Block
-
Latest Media
-
⚡FlashInsights
-
Stock Lists
-
All Stock Lists
- Granny Shots
-
Stock List
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Commentary
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Historical
FSI Pro FSI Macro
- Upticks
-
Intro
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Stock List
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Performance
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Commentary
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
FAQ
FSI Pro FSI Macro
- Sector Allocation
-
Intro
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Current Outlook
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Prior Outlooks
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Performance
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Sector
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
Tools
FSI Pro FSI Macro
-
FAQ
FSI Pro FSI Macro
- Crypto Core Strategy
-
Intro
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Strategy
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Performance
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Reports
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Historical Changes
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Tools
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
- Crypto Liquid Ventures
-
Intro
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Strategy
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Performance
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
Reports
FSI Pro FSI Crypto
-
All Stock Lists
-
Watchlist
-
FSI Community
-
FSI Snapshot
-
FSI Academy
- Community Activities
-
Intro
-
Community Questions
-
Community Contests
-
Community Interviews
-
FSI Snapshot
Fed Minutes: It’s Considering New COVID-19 Support Policies
Markets like to read the meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC even though much, if not most, of the time there’s not much new in them. But investors like to be reassured, and sometimes even if the Fed—being the Fed—fails to repeat some policy, that’s sometimes taken as a change in policy.
The minutes from the most recent meeting, June 9-10, reveal pretty much what the central bank has been saying all along: it’s going to keep rates low until 2022 and it stands ready to use all the tools it has to support the economy, including buying fixed income assets, as it has done.
And if it hadn’t said that, I’d bet the market would take it badly. Sometimes, I think the market is a big baby.
The minutes do show that the Fed looked at ways to design more support for the economy and show some concern about the possibility of additional coronavirus outbreaks, which could in turn hurt the progress made in recent weeks. And here’s the key phrase that the market probably likes: the Fed is not in a hurry to remove support.
We shall see how much support is needed and for how long. Friday, the Labor department reported that the country added 4.8 million jobs in June, much higher than expected. Markets rallied on it, of course.
It will be interesting to see what happens in Congress now, as my colleague Tom Block has said that a good employment number, like that one, would potentially make the Senate less likely to approve the full $3 trillion that the House recently passed. Moreover, the FOMC meeting for July 28-29, might now be interesting.
One other note in what is traditionally a quiet week ahead of the Independence Day Holiday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the reopening of the U.S. economy—and the accompanying upturn in spending and hiring this spring—has happened sooner than central bank officials expected. Guess that means the Fed doesn’t know everything.
But he added that the push to lift restrictions on commercial activity carried other risks, such as the recent increases in coronavirus infections and hospitalizations in states across the U.S. South and Southwest. For more on this, see page 3.
Most Fed officials project the economy would contract by anywhere between 4% and 10% this year. Given Powell admitted that the Fed had been surprised by the rebound in the economy, and the Labor Dept. numbers today, perhaps we should take what the Fed says with a grain of salt? Never happen.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped sharply last week to about 0.67% vs 0.64% one week previous. Next FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
More from the author
This research is for the clients of FS Insight only. FSI Subscription entitles the subscriber to 1 user, research cannot be shared or redistributed. For additional information, please contact your sales representative or FS Insight at fsinsight.com.
This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of FS Insight. At the time of publication of this report, FS Insight does not know of, or have reason to know of any material conflicts of interest.
FS Insight is an independent research company and is not a registered investment advisor and is not acting as a broker dealer under any federal or state securities laws.
FS Insight is a member of IRC Securities’ Research Prime Services Platform. IRC Securities is a FINRA registered broker-dealer that is focused on supporting the independent research industry. Certain personnel of FS Insight (i.e. Research Analysts) are registered representatives of IRC Securities, a FINRA member firm registered as a broker-dealer with the Securities and Exchange Commission and certain state securities regulators. As registered representatives and independent contractors of IRC Securities, such personnel may receive commissions paid to or shared with IRC Securities for transactions placed by FS Insight clients directly with IRC Securities or with securities firms that may share commissions with IRC Securities in accordance with applicable SEC and FINRA requirements. IRC Securities does not distribute the research of FS Insight, which is available to select institutional clients that have engaged FS Insight.
As registered representatives of IRC Securities our analysts must follow IRC Securities’ Written Supervisory Procedures. Notable compliance policies include (1) prohibition of insider trading or the facilitation thereof, (2) maintaining client confidentiality, (3) archival of electronic communications, and (4) appropriate use of electronic communications, amongst other compliance related policies.
FS Insight does not have the same conflicts that traditional sell-side research organizations have because FS Insight (1) does not conduct any investment banking activities, and (2) does not manage any investment funds.
This communication is issued by FS Insight and/or affiliates of FS Insight. This is not a personal recommendation, nor an offer to buy or sell nor a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, investment products or other financial instruments or services. This material is distributed for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting or investment advice.
The statements in this document shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters. Please note that this document (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination or publication of investment research.
Intended for recipient only and not for further distribution without the consent of FS Insight.
This research is for the clients of FS Insight only. Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but FS Insight does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to FS Insight and the analyst’s involvement (if any) with any of the subject companies of the research. All pricing is as of the market close for the securities discussed, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, risk tolerance, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decision regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Except in circumstances where FS Insight expressly agrees otherwise in writing, FS Insight is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice, including within the meaning of Section 15B of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our internal client website, fsinsight.com. Not all research content is redistributed to our clients or made available to third-party aggregators or the media. Please contact your sales representative if you would like to receive any of our research publications.
Copyright © 2024 FS Insight LLC. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the prior written consent of FS Insight LLC.