What with the U.S. killing of a Iranian general; retaliation by the Iranian government; and a potentially downed airliner near Teheran, the Federal Reserve Board stood little or no chance of grabbing headlines last week.

It was Talking Heads week. No, not the band, but a band of Fed policymaking officials who made the following abundantly clear—again. All of which is good news, as my colleague Tom Lee points out. (See page 3.)

The Fed is and continues to stand pat. For the last few months, Fed officials have repeatedly insisted the Fed is on the sidelines on rate changes, pending the economic data. Second, the august central bank’s “management” of the giant U.S. economy is proceeding apace, the Fed says. It continues to take bows for not wrecking the economy last year. Well, fine. Of course, no one’s talking about the badly timed rate hikes the Fed made in the previous couple of years. Hush, hush, now.

There is an upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting at month’s end, but it will be a snooze. The CME Fed futures market, which I have found over the years is a better indicator of where rates are going than the FOMC’s data, says there is over a 90% probability of rates remaining unchanged.

And here’s a surprise, a little one. The fed futures have...
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