News from or about the Federal Reserve Board last week was sparse on the ground as U.S. equity markets were rocked by increasing data-based concerns about a potential slowdown or recession in the U.S. Just below that was investor fear about the ongoing possibility of an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. For more see pages 1 and 10.

Some data wasn’t encouraging and some was. Friday, the Labor Dept. said the economy added 136,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.7% in August, marking the lowest rate since December 1969

Earlier in the week, the Institute for Supply Management reported its manufacturing index fell to 47.8 in September, the lowest level since June 2009, from 49.1 the prior month. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, while those above signify expansion.

Yet, regular readers might remember that we’ve been noting for some time now that this could happen in the fall. Tom Lee has said for many months now that a sub-48 print in ISM by September was probable. Again, the nine months change of U.S. Treasury 30-year-10-year yield curve has a remarkable track record of leading ISM by 16 months. We expect the ISM to rebound sharply in 2020. For more on this, see page 3.

Taken together, these two conflicting data...

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